Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 23 TORNADO KY TN 181710Z - 182300Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW JKL/JACKSON KY/ - 80SSW BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /59N LOZ - 25NNE MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
LAT...LON 37998222 35048554 35048890 37998570
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 23 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 23
VALID 182140Z - 182240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CHA TO
15 SE JKL TO 35 SE LEX TO 40 E LEX.
..SMITH..02/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC025-065-071-095-115-119-129-133-153-159-165-175-195-197-237-
182240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREATHITT ESTILL FLOYD
HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT
LEE LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MENIFEE MORGAN
PIKE POWELL WOLFE
$$
TNC001-009-011-025-065-093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-173-
182240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLOUNT BRADLEY
CLAIBORNE HAMILTON KNOX
LOUDON MCMINN MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN POLK
RHEA ROANE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 23
VALID 182035Z - 182140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N HSV TO
30 W LEX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 124
..SMITH..02/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-013-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-065-071-079-095-109-113-
115-119-121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-155-159-165-167-173-
175-189-193-195-197-199-203-207-217-229-231-235-237-182140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
ESTILL FLOYD GARRARD
HARLAN JACKSON JESSAMINE
JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LEE LESLIE
LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION
MARTIN MENIFEE MERCER
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL
TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-025-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-065-087-
093-103-105-107-115-121-123-127-129-133-137-139-141-143-145-151-
153-173-175-177-185-182140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE
CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DEKALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GRUNDY HAMILTON JACKSON
KNOX LINCOLN LOUDON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
MONROE MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PICKETT POLK
PUTNAM RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE UNION
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 23
VALID 181945Z - 182040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 124.
..SMITH..02/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-009-013-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061-065-079-085-
087-093-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137-147-151-153-155-165-
167-169-171-173-175-179-189-193-197-199-203-207-213-217-227-229-
231-235-237-182040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BELL BOYLE BREATHITT
CASEY CLARK CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON
ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON
GREEN HARDIN HART
JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX
LARUE LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION
MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NELSON OWSLEY PERRY
POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
TNC003-007-013-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-081-
087-099-101-103-111-115-117-119-127-129-133-135-137-141-149-151-
153-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-182040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CAMPBELL
CANNON CHEATHAM CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DEKALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARION
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
MORGAN OVERTON PERRY
PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 23
VALID 181830Z - 181940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..02/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-009-013-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061-065-079-085-
087-093-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137-147-151-153-155-165-
167-169-171-173-175-179-189-193-197-199-203-207-213-217-227-229-
231-235-237-181940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BELL BOYLE BREATHITT
CASEY CLARK CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON
ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON
GREEN HARDIN HART
JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX
LARUE LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION
MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NELSON OWSLEY PERRY
POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
TNC003-007-013-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-081-
087-099-101-103-111-115-117-119-127-129-133-135-137-141-149-151-
153-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-181940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CAMPBELL
CANNON CHEATHAM CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DEKALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARION
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
MORGAN OVERTON PERRY
PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.