Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ENE INTO AN INSTABILITY
AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1200 J/KG AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS AND
CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE O-2KM WIND FIELDS
WERE BEGINNING TO VEER OVER FAR SWRN OK...SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS
NOTED ON THE TLX/PURCELL PROFILERS TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF A
COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...RACY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 25 TORNADO OK TX 031830Z - 040200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15SSE MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 45NW ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /51WSW DFW - 37S OKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 32569916 34749880 34749634 32569676
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 25 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 25
VALID 040040Z - 040140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SEP
TO 40 NNE MWL TO 40 NNE ADM.
..COHEN..02/04/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-069-095-040140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON
MARSHALL
$$
TXC097-121-181-237-337-363-367-497-040140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOKE DENTON GRAYSON
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 25
VALID 032340Z - 040040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ABI TO
35 ESE SPS TO 35 ESE CHK.
..COHEN..02/03/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-049-069-085-095-099-123-040040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
GARVIN JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
$$
TXC097-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-497-040040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOKE DENTON GRAYSON
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER STEPHENS WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 25
VALID 032230Z - 032340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ABI TO
20 SE SPS TO 25 SSE CHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 103
..COHEN..02/03/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-032340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
$$
TXC097-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-497-503-032340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOKE DENTON GRAYSON
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER STEPHENS WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 25
VALID 032130Z - 032240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW SPS TO
25 SSE CHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 103
..DIAL..02/03/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-032240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
$$
TXC009-077-097-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-485-497-503-032240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
DENTON GRAYSON JACK
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
STEPHENS WICHITA WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 25
VALID 032045Z - 032140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SPS TO
20 S CHK.
..DIAL..02/03/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-032140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER COTTON GARVIN
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
STEPHENS
$$
TXC009-077-097-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-485-497-503-032140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
DENTON GRAYSON JACK
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
STEPHENS WICHITA WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 25
VALID 031940Z - 032040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..02/03/12
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-031-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-141-032040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-077-097-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-485-497-503-032040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
DENTON GRAYSON JACK
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
STEPHENS WICHITA WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.