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SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1155 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SALISBURY MARYLAND TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...WW 25...WW
26...
DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED...PRE-FRONTAL SQLN NOW EXTENDING FROM W OF
RICHMOND VA TO EAST OF FLORENCE SC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD AND
OFF THE NC/VA/MD CST EARLY THU. SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST...VERY
STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND TIGHTENING OF SQLN
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED NEWD EJECTION OF TN VLY UPR
TROUGH...WILL BE COUNTERED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. WHILE THIS WARM LAYER WILL
TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH...INTENSITY OF LOW-LVL SHEAR AND PRESENCE
EXISTING BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS...UNTIL THE
CONVECTIVE BAND CLEARS THE CST.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23060.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 27 TORNADO MD NC VA CW 310455Z - 311000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ENE SBY/SALISBURY MD/ - 25SE OAJ/JACKSONVILLE NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /14ENE SBY - 31ENE ILM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23060.
LAT...LON 38407413 34567625 34567836 38407634
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 27 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 27
VALID 310845Z - 310940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE EWN
TO 25 ENE ECG TO 35 S WAL TO 25 ENE SBY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 112.
..PETERS..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC031-053-055-095-177-310940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTERET CURRITUCK DARE
HYDE TYRRELL
$$
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658-310940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 27
VALID 310755Z - 310840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE OAJ TO
45 NNE EWN TO 10 SW ORF TO 30 SE NHK TO 20 ENE NHK.
..PETERS..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC019-039-045-047-310840-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC013-029-031-041-049-053-055-095-137-139-143-177-187-310840-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CAMDEN CARTERET
CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK
DARE HYDE PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS TYRRELL
WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-131-550-710-740-810-310840-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK NORTHAMPTON
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH
VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-ANZ630-631-632-633-634-638-650-652-
654-656-658-310840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE-TUNNEL
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 27
VALID 310650Z - 310740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ILM TO
25 E RWI TO 40 NE RZZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 110.
..PETERS..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC019-039-045-047-310740-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107-
117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-310740-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
GATES GREENE HERTFORD
HYDE JONES LENOIR
MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT
TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-057-073-093-095-097-101-103-115-119-131-133-159-181-193-
199-550-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-310740-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ESSEX GLOUCESTER
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER MATHEWS
MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
RICHMOND SURRY WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-ANZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-637-
638-650-652-654-656-658-310740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT
YORK RIVER
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE-TUNNEL
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 27
VALID 310535Z - 310640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC019-039-045-047-310640-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107-
117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-310640-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
GATES GREENE HERTFORD
HYDE JONES LENOIR
MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT
TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-057-073-093-095-097-101-103-115-119-131-133-159-181-193-
199-550-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-310640-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ESSEX GLOUCESTER
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER MATHEWS
MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
RICHMOND SURRY WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-ANZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-637-
638-650-652-654-656-658-310640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT
YORK RIVER
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE-TUNNEL
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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