Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 130 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
TEMPLE TEXAS TO 55 MILES WEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ZONE IN
THE ERN/SRN TX HILL COUNTRY EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
POSSIBLY STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE...WHILE 700 MB WSW FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HI
PLNS. WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...A THREAT
MAY DEVELOP FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR
HAIL...BEFORE PACIFIC FRONT SQLN TO THEIR WEST OVERTAKES THE STORMS
LATER IN THE MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 29 TORNADO TX 100730Z - 101500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
95ENE TPL/TEMPLE TX/ - 55W BAZ/NEW BRAUNFELS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /69E ACT - 26W SAT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 31659473 29709777 29700011 31659712
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 29 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 29
VALID 101335Z - 101440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BAZ TO
10 NE CLL.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-041-051-055-187-287-101440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON
CALDWELL GUADALUPE LEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 29
VALID 101230Z - 101340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SAT TO
25 S TPL TO 45 SE CRS.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-021-041-051-055-091-187-209-225-287-289-313-331-395-453-
491-101340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BASTROP BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL COMAL
GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON
LEE LEON MADISON
MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 29
VALID 101045Z - 101140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-019-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-145-161-171-187-209-
225-259-265-287-289-293-299-313-331-385-395-453-491-101140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP
BELL BLANCO BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL FALLS FREESTONE
GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS
HOUSTON KENDALL KERR
LEE LEON LIMESTONE
LLANO MADISON MILAM
REAL ROBERTSON TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 29
VALID 100945Z - 101040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-019-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-145-161-171-187-209-
225-259-265-287-289-293-299-313-331-385-395-453-491-101040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP
BELL BLANCO BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL FALLS FREESTONE
GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS
HOUSTON KENDALL KERR
LEE LEON LIMESTONE
LLANO MADISON MILAM
REAL ROBERTSON TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.