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SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 420 AM UNTIL NOON CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 75 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...WW 29...
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VIA A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO THREAT COULD INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING AS MORE CONSEQUENTIAL MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE. ACCORDINGLY...PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD
EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE...MAINLY ACROSS LA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 30 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 101020Z - 101800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE TXK/TEXARKANA AR/ - 75WSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /20NE TXK - 25ENE LFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 33779244 31309291 31309562 33779523
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 30 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 30
VALID 101455Z - 101540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW LFK
TO 20 ENE ELD.
SEVERE THREAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING FOR REMAINING PART OF WW
30 AS STORMS EXIT BOSSIER COUNTY.
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC015-101540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 30
VALID 101335Z - 101440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW TYR
TO 30 S TXK TO 25 NNE TXK.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-101440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
MILLER NEVADA
$$
LAC015-017-119-101440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER
$$
TXC183-203-315-101440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREGG HARRISON MARION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 30
VALID 101230Z - 101340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW TYR
TO 35 SW TXK TO 20 SSE DEQ.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-101340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-069-081-085-119-101340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES
RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-037-067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-
101340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CASS
CHEROKEE GREGG HARRISON
MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 30
VALID 101130Z - 101240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-101240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-069-081-085-119-101240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES
RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-101240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-101240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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