Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 245 AM UNTIL 700 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 26. WATCH NUMBER 26 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 245 AM EST. CONTINUE...WW 28...WW 30...
DISCUSSION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE GA/SC CSTL PLN AND ADJACENT CSTL
WATERS UNTIL AROUND 12Z AS STORMS ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
CONTINUE EWD IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WRN-MOST AREA OF
POTENTIAL INITIATION OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THE BAND ATTM APPEARS
TO BE INVOF WEAK LEWP NNE OF ABY. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND
ASCENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE SVR THREAT EWD
OFF THE CST AFTER DAWN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 31 TORNADO GA SC CW 190745Z - 191200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65SW SAV/SAVANNAH GA/ - 40NNE SAV/SAVANNAH GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /28E AMG - 32NNE SAV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
REPLACES WW 26..GA SC CW
LAT...LON 31458300 32658197 32657991 31458095
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 31 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 31
VALID 190930Z - 191040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW VDI TO
15 WSW SAV TO 50 SSW CHS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 137.
..PETERS..02/19/09
ATTN...WFO...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC029-051-179-183-191-267-191040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY
LONG MCINTOSH TATTNALL
$$
AMZ352-354-191040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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