Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 700 AM UNTIL 200
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...WW 30...
DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED E TX SQLN LINE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ESEWD...WHILE STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG IT. THE LOW-LVL WLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
THIS...COUPLED WITH EXISTING STRENGTH OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR /AOA 60
KTS/ AND THE CONTINUED NWD SPREAD OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO FAR
E TX/LA... SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WITHIN THE LINE MAY REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE SQLN LINE NEAR
THE SABINE RVR EWD INTO CNTRL LA AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES
REGION/OVERCOMES EML CAP INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 31 TORNADO AR LA TX 101300Z - 102000Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE MLU/MONROE LA/ - 55SSE LFK/LUFKIN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /52NNE MLU - 43SSE LFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 33318980 30479262 30479616 33319344
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 31 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 31
VALID 101945Z - 102000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LCH TO
20 N HEZ.
WW 31 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102000Z. STRONGER STORMS ARE IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO WW 32.
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-079-102000-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN RAPIDES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 31
VALID 101730Z - 101840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BPT TO
25 W POE TO 50 WNW JAN TO 40 S GWO.
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-043-059-079-115-101840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD GRANT
LA SALLE RAPIDES VERNON
$$
TXC241-351-101840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 31
VALID 101630Z - 101740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LFK TO
25 SE LFK TO 35 NE MLU TO 15 SE GLH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 138
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-069-079-083-
085-097-107-115-123-127-101740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT LA SALLE MADISON
NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RICHLAND
SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS
VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
TXC241-351-403-457-101740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON SABINE
TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 31
VALID 101450Z - 101540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW UTS TO
30 SW LLQ.
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-101540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-029-031-035-039-041-043-049-059-061-
065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-097-107-111-115-123-127-
101540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY
TENSAS UNION VERNON
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
TXC005-185-241-347-351-373-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-101540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA GRIMES JASPER
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON POLK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY TRINITY TYLER
WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 31
VALID 101335Z - 101440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-101440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-027-029-031-035-039-041-043-049-059-
061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-097-107-111-115-123-127-
101440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION
VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
TXC005-073-185-225-241-313-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-
455-457-471-101440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GRIMES
HOUSTON JASPER MADISON
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
TRINITY TYLER WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.