Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...
DISCUSSION...NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION IS GLANCED BY A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
TRAILING EXTENSION OF A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
MS...SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A
FEW TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 32 TORNADO LA MS 101710Z - 110000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60W BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 50NNE JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /44W BTR - 36NE JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 30529316 32979079 32978870 30529115
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 32 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 32
VALID 102240Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE LCH TO
20 WNW MCB TO 40 WNW PIB.
WW 32 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH BY ABOUT 2330Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE UPCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 144
..THOMPSON..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC033-037-063-077-091-097-103-105-117-121-125-102340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-045-061-065-067-073-077-085-091-109-113-147-
157-102340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST HANCOCK JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL
WILKINSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 32
VALID 102130Z - 102240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LFT TO
30 SSW JAN TO 40 E JAN.
..DIAL..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC033-037-063-077-091-097-103-105-117-121-125-102240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-023-029-031-035-037-045-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-091-
101-109-113-127-129-147-157-102240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
HANCOCK JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PIKE
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WILKINSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.