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SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ALTON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LVL COOLING ASCENT
OVERTAKE MERGING COLD FRONTS NOW IN WRN MO/SE KS. WIND PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND
INCREASED LINEAR FORCING WITH TIME SUGGESTS OVERALL EVOLUTION TO A
QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE.
SRN PART OF WW...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF A
MORE DELAYED EVOLUTION TO LINEAR MODE...AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO
TORNADO WW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.
...CORFIDI
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ALTON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LVL COOLING ASCENT
OVERTAKE MERGING COLD FRONTS NOW IN WRN MO/SE KS. WIND PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND
INCREASED LINEAR FORCING WITH TIME SUGGESTS OVERALL EVOLUTION TO A
QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE.
SRN PART OF WW...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF A
MORE DELAYED EVOLUTION TO LINEAR MODE...AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO
TORNADO WW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 32 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 262320Z - 270600Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
70NNW ALN/ALTON IL/ - 35SE UMN/MONETT MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /33E UIN - 36ENE RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 39818894 36509191 36509498 39819216
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 32 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 32
VALID 270440Z - 270540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW UNO
TO 25 WNW FAM TO 20 WNW FAM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 156
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC163-270540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC093-149-179-203-270540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IRON OREGON REYNOLDS
SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 32
VALID 270345Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW FLP
TO 35 WNW FAM TO 20 ENE ALN.
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC119-133-163-270440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON MONROE ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC091-093-099-149-153-179-203-221-270440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
OREGON OZARK REYNOLDS
SHANNON WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 32
VALID 270240Z - 270340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW HRO
TO 15 NE TBN TO 25 W SPI.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-163-270340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC055-065-067-071-091-093-099-149-153-161-179-183-189-203-213-
215-221-229-510-270340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SHANNON TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 32
VALID 270125Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HRO TO
30 ENE SGF TO 15 NNW VIH TO 50 ENE COU TO 35 E UIN.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-149-163-270240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
PIKE ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC043-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-105-113-125-139-149-151-
153-161-163-169-179-183-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-
270240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LINCOLN MARIES
MONTGOMERY OREGON OSAGE
OZARK PHELPS PIKE
PULASKI REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SHANNON STONE
TANEY TEXAS WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 32
VALID 270050Z - 270140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW UMN
TO 10 SSW JEF TO 35 NE COU TO 15 SE UIN.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-149-163-270140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALHOUN GREENE
JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON
MONROE PIKE ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC007-027-029-043-051-055-059-065-067-071-073-077-091-093-099-
105-113-125-131-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-179-183-189-203-209-
213-215-219-221-225-229-510-270140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN CALLAWAY CAMDEN
CHRISTIAN COLE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LINCOLN MARIES
MILLER MONTGOMERY OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PHELPS
PIKE PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
