Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
N TX/SRN OK...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NE TX INTO SE
OK. THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE W EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SW/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200
M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
N TX/SRN OK...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NE TX INTO SE
OK. THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE W EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SW/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200
M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 34 TORNADO AR OK TX 051800Z - 060100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WNW PRX/PARIS TX/ - 20E DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /53ESE ADM - 32N TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 35119616 35279405 32819405 32659616
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 34 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 34
VALID 060030Z - 060100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SHV TO
15 SSE TXK.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 34 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
06/01Z.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC091-060100-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MILLER
$$
TXC315-060100-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 34
VALID 052345Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GGG TO
20 ESE FSM.
..KERR..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-060040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
TXC037-067-315-343-459-060040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS MARION
MORRIS UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 34
VALID 052225Z - 052340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW TYR
TO 10 WSW RKR TO 10 SW FSM.
..KERR..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-052340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC079-089-127-052340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-315-343-387-449-459-499-052340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN MARION MORRIS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 34
VALID 052125Z - 052240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DAL TO
25 WSW PRX TO 40 NNW PRX TO 5 SW FSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 160
..SPC..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-052240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC023-079-089-127-052240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-159-223-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-467-499-
052240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FRANKLIN HOPKINS
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 34
VALID 052035Z - 052140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUA
TO 35 S MLC TO 25 WNW RKR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 159
..SPC..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-052140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC023-077-079-089-127-135-052140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-
467-499-052140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 34
VALID 051935Z - 052040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-052040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-052040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-
467-499-052040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 34
VALID 051840Z - 051940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-051940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-051940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-315-343-379-387-449-459-
467-499-051940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.