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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTH OF CARBONDALE ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING E IN EXIT REGION OF 60 KT MID
LVL JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE
BOUNDARY LAYER...CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG THE MS
RVR VLY MAY SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE/SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 34 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 270250Z - 270900Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25SW POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 35N MDH/CARBONDALE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /25NNE ARG - 59NE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 36509195 38279044 38278805 36508962
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 34 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 34
VALID 270700Z - 270840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW POF TO
30 N PAH.
..SPC..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-087-153-270840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER JOHNSON PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-270840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC133-143-201-207-270840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 34
VALID 270535Z - 270640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S UNO TO
20 SSE FAM TO 20 SSE BLV.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-077-081-087-145-153-157-181-189-199-270640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON PERRY
PULASKI RANDOLPH UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-270640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-270640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 34
VALID 270445Z - 270540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FAM
TO 25 ENE FAM TO 20 SSW BLV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 156
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-077-081-087-145-153-157-181-189-199-270540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON PERRY
PULASKI RANDOLPH UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-270540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
270540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 34
VALID 270350Z - 270440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-077-081-087-145-153-157-181-189-199-270440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON PERRY
PULASKI RANDOLPH UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-270440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
270440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
