Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...
DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX WILL EJECT NEWD
OVER N TX AND OK THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SRN OK TO SRN MO ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.
THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN DESTABILIZING ACROSS NW AR/SRN MO IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AND IT APPEARS THAT STORMS NOW FORMING
NEAR THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE NRN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER PLUME. STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BOW ECHO
FORMATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 35 TORNADO AR MO 051840Z - 060200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35E UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/ - 25WNW FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /41NNW ARG - 23WSW RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 35889123 35279458 37009458 37619123
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 35 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #9 ON WW 35
VALID 060125Z - 060200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BVX TO
40 WNW POF.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 35 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
06/02Z.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC149-060200-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OREGON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 35
VALID 060035Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE RUE
TO 45 WSW FAM.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-049-129-060140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FULTON SEARCY
$$
MOC091-149-203-060140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL OREGON SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 35
VALID 060035Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FSM TO
45 WSW FAM.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-049-129-060140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FULTON SEARCY
$$
MOC091-149-203-060140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL OREGON SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 35
VALID 060030Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW RUE
TO 45 WSW FAM.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-049-083-097-109-113-127-129-149-060140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FULTON LOGAN
MONTGOMERY PIKE POLK
SCOTT SEARCY YELL
$$
MOC091-149-203-060140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL OREGON SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 35
VALID 052345Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FSM TO
45 SE VIH.
..KERR..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-049-071-083-089-097-101-109-113-127-129-149-060040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FULTON JOHNSON
LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PIKE POLK
SCOTT SEARCY YELL
$$
MOC065-067-091-149-153-203-215-060040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL
OREGON OZARK SHANNON
TEXAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 35
VALID 052225Z - 052340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FSM TO 35 SW
TBN.
..KERR..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-033-047-049-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-127-
129-131-143-149-052340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN FULTON
JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PIKE POLK SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-052340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 35
VALID 052125Z - 052240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FYV
TO 25 SE UMN TO 35 ENE SGF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 160
..SPC..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-033-047-049-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-127-
129-131-143-149-052240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN FULTON
JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PIKE POLK SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-052240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 35
VALID 052035Z - 052140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FYV TO
25 S UMN TO 15 ENE SGF.
..SPC..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-033-047-049-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-127-
129-131-143-149-052140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN FULTON
JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PIKE POLK SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-052140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 35
VALID 051935Z - 052040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-
127-129-131-143-149-052040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON JOHNSON LOGAN
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PIKE POLK
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
MOC009-043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-052040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DENT
DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON
OZARK SHANNON STONE
TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.