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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...
DISCUSSION...SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT IN CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION
AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT MID LVL JET STREAK CONTINUE EWD.
DESPITE WEAK DIURNAL STABILIZATION...PRESENCE OF ENHANCED SSWLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER ERN AR...AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS...SUGGEST THAT A
THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL...WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST
THROUGH EARLY FRI.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 35 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 270330Z - 270900Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WSW LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 40NW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /24ENE ELD - 37NW DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 33439318 36409080 36408901 33439144
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 35 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 35
VALID 270810Z - 270940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-055-067-069-075-
077-079-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-147-270940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC027-033-143-270940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-270940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-270940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 35
VALID 270700Z - 270840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-055-067-069-075-
077-079-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-147-270840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC027-033-143-270840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-270840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-270840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 35
VALID 270535Z - 270640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-055-067-069-075-
077-079-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-147-270640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC027-033-143-270640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-270640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-270640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 35
VALID 270500Z - 270640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 156
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-055-067-069-075-
077-079-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-147-270640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC027-033-143-270640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-270640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-157-167-270640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
