Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 300
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ARE IN PLACE. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE BUT AS HEATING TAKES PLACE A TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 300
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ARE IN PLACE. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE BUT AS HEATING TAKES PLACE A TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 37 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 271445Z - 272100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W ELD/EL DORADO AR/ - 45SSE BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /26W ELD - 45N MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 34029325 33758644 32168644 32419325
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 37 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 37
VALID 272045Z - 272100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
BUT...WW 37 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED
AT 27/2100Z.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC057-075-127-272100-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE LAMAR WALKER
$$
ARC011-013-025-027-039-041-043-079-099-103-139-272100-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW LINCOLN NEVADA
OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC027-061-073-111-272100-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE LINCOLN OUACHITA
UNION
$$
MSC013-017-095-135-161-272100-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW MONROE
TALLAHATCHIE YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 37
VALID 271940Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC057-075-127-272040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE LAMAR WALKER
$$
ARC011-013-025-027-039-041-043-079-099-103-139-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW LINCOLN NEVADA
OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC027-061-073-111-272040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE LINCOLN OUACHITA
UNION
$$
MSC013-017-095-135-161-272040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW MONROE
TALLAHATCHIE YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 37
VALID 271850Z - 271940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC057-075-127-271940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE LAMAR WALKER
$$
ARC011-013-025-027-039-041-043-079-099-103-139-271940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW LINCOLN NEVADA
OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC027-061-073-111-271940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE LINCOLN OUACHITA
UNION
$$
MSC013-017-095-135-161-271940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW MONROE
TALLAHATCHIE YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 37
VALID 271730Z - 271840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-047-057-063-065-073-075-085-091-105-107-117-119-
125-127-271840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
DALLAS FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LOWNDES MARENGO PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
ARC003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-079-099-103-139-271840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA
UNION
$$
LAC027-035-061-065-067-073-083-111-123-271840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND UNION WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-
083-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-135-149-151-
155-159-161-163-271840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 37
VALID 271635Z - 271740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-047-057-063-065-073-075-085-091-105-107-117-119-
125-127-271740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
DALLAS FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LOWNDES MARENGO PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
ARC003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-079-099-103-139-271740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA
UNION
$$
LAC027-035-061-065-067-073-083-111-123-271740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND UNION WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-
083-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-135-149-151-
155-159-161-163-271740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
