Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 37...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF
E/W THERMAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN AR TO CENTRAL AL. AS AIR MASS HAS
BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY
SUPERCELL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 38 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 271840Z - 280200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SSW LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 5NNE MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /35N MLU - 9NNW MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 34119201 33368637 31348637 32099201
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 38 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 38
VALID 272340Z - 280040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 167.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-021-023-047-051-063-065-073-085-087-091-101-
105-107-109-113-117-119-125-131-280040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CHILTON CHOCTAW
DALLAS ELMORE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY
PERRY PICKENS PIKE
RUSSELL SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WILCOX
$$
ARC003-017-280040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-280040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-083-087-
089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
280040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MADISON MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 38
VALID 272145Z - 272240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-021-023-025-047-051-063-065-073-085-087-091-
099-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-125-129-131-272240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL
SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
ARC003-017-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-272240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-041-043-049-051-053-055-061-067-069-
075-079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-111-121-123-125-129-133-
149-151-153-155-159-163-272240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
GREENE GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JONES KEMPER
LAUDERDALE LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PERRY RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SMITH
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 38
VALID 272045Z - 272140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-021-023-025-047-051-063-065-073-085-087-091-
099-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-125-129-131-272140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL
SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
ARC003-017-272140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-272140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-041-043-049-051-053-055-061-067-069-
075-079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-111-121-123-125-129-133-
149-151-153-155-159-163-272140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
GREENE GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JONES KEMPER
LAUDERDALE LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PERRY RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SMITH
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 38
VALID 271940Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-023-025-047-063-065-073-085-091-099-105-107-117-
119-125-129-131-272040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
CHOCTAW CLARKE DALLAS
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE
PERRY PICKENS SHELBY
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
ARC003-017-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-272040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-041-043-049-051-053-055-061-067-069-
075-079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-111-121-123-125-129-133-
149-151-153-155-159-163-272040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
GREENE GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JONES KEMPER
LAUDERDALE LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PERRY RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SMITH
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.