Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 38
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW
37...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH COLD FRONT
ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY E OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 38 SEVERE TSTM TX 052200Z - 060200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SSW TYR/TYLER TX/ - 55ESE GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /59SW GGG - 42S EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 32689566 32939384 31209384 30959566
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 38 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 38
VALID 060130Z - 060200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LFK TO
20 S SHV.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 38 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
06/02Z.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC005-403-405-419-060200-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 38
VALID 060130Z - 060200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LFK TO
20 S SHV.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 38 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
06/02Z.
..KERR..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC005-203-347-365-403-405-419-060200-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARRISON NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 38
VALID 060025Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N UTS TO
25 SSE GGG TO 35 SSE TXK.
..JEWELL..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC005-203-347-365-403-405-419-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARRISON NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 38
VALID 052350Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRS TO
30 NNW GGG.
..KERR..02/05/08
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC005-073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-060040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
