Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AUBURN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 38. WATCH NUMBER 38 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 745
PM CST.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND
JUST N OF SHALLOW WNW/ESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MS
INTO CNTRL AL. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY TEMPORARILY BE DIMINISHED BY NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...APPROACH
OF 70 KT MID LVL SPEED MAX NOW IN OK SUGGESTS THAT AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE WILL OCCUR IN WSWLY LLJ OVER WW. THIS IN TURN MAY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. STRENGTH OF
DEEP SHEAR AND SUSTAINED NATURE OF LOW LVL WAA MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND...AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 39 TORNADO AL MS 280145Z - 280900Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 15ESE AUO/AUBURN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /14SSW SQS - 31S LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
REPLACES WW 38..AL AR LA MS
LAT...LON 34119038 33408519 31658519 32389038
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 39 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 39
VALID 280655Z - 280740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GWO
TO 40 ENE GWO TO 20 NNW CBM.
..SPC..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-063-065-073-075-
081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-121-123-125-127-
280740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLAY COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
MSC007-015-019-025-049-051-069-075-079-087-089-097-099-101-103-
105-121-123-155-159-163-280740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY HINDS HOLMES
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA RANKIN SCOTT
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 39
VALID 280430Z - 280540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-027-037-041-047-051-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-121-123-
125-127-131-280540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLAY
COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WILCOX
$$
MSC007-015-019-025-043-049-051-069-075-079-083-087-089-097-099-
101-103-105-121-123-155-159-163-280540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MADISON MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 39
VALID 280330Z - 280440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-027-037-041-047-051-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-121-123-
125-127-131-280440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLAY
COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WILCOX
$$
MSC007-015-019-025-043-049-051-069-075-079-083-087-089-097-099-
101-103-105-121-123-155-159-163-280440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MADISON MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.