Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 250 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA
TO SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY...AND DEMARKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RICHER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE REGION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MID
MORNING AS IT LIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 40 TORNADO AL 280850Z - 281500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW TCL/TUSCALOOSA AL/ - 50ENE MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /35NE MEI - 35SW LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 33298823 33138561 31988561 32138823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 40 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 40
VALID 281435Z - 281500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW SEM TO
20 WNW SEM TO 25 NNW AUO.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.
..KERR..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-017-047-051-081-085-087-101-109-113-123-281500-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
CHAMBERS DALLAS ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 40
VALID 281350Z - 281440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW SEM
TO 20 WNW SEM TO 25 NNW AUO.
..SPC..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-017-047-051-081-085-087-101-109-113-123-281440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
CHAMBERS DALLAS ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 40
VALID 281255Z - 281340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MEI TO
30 S ANB.
..SPC..02/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-021-037-047-051-085-087-091-101-105-123-281340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA CHILTON COOSA
DALLAS ELMORE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY
PERRY TALLAPOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.