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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 125 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AIDED BY SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRANSLATING
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL LA. PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR NEW AT 07Z SHOULD CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES AS IT MOVES NEWD
OVERNIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY STILL FORM NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES ESEWD...WITH SVR THREAT ENDING BEHIND THIS FRONT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 44 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 060725Z - 061300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30SW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 60NE MOB/MOBILE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /19SW BTR - 52WNW CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 31239151 32318752 30288752 29209151
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 44 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 44
VALID 061140Z - 061240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE HUM
TO 30 SE ASD TO 45 ESE MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 178.
..EDWARDS..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC075-087-061240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC039-041-047-059-061240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON
$$
GMZ555-061240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 44
VALID 061050Z - 061140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM TO
10 SE MSY TO 40 NNW GPT TO 20 SSE MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 177.
..EDWARDS..02/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-097-129-061140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE MOBILE
WASHINGTON
$$
LAC051-075-087-061140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-061140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ550-555-630-061140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
