Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN KS AND DEVELOP/SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING ALONG STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKENING CINH NEAR THE FRONT OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO FAST
MOVING LINES/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. SHOULD SUPERCELLS
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-135/I-35...WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WW MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT A LATER TIME SHOULD
THIS THREAT MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN KS AND DEVELOP/SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING ALONG STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKENING CINH NEAR THE FRONT OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO FAST
MOVING LINES/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. SHOULD SUPERCELLS
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-135/I-35...WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WW MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT A LATER TIME SHOULD
THIS THREAT MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 45 SEVERE TSTM KS 072035Z - 080400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/ - 35SE TOP/TOPEKA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /74WSW ICT - 41NW BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 38319908 39589516 37849516 36599908
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 45 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 45
VALID 080230Z - 080340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W P28 TO
5 NE SLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 202.
..GOSS..03/08/09
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-007-015-017-031-033-035-041-045-049-059-061-073-077-079-
085-087-095-111-113-115-127-139-151-155-173-177-191-197-207-
080340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MORRIS OSAGE PRATT
RENO SEDGWICK SHAWNEE
SUMNER WABAUNSEE WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 45
VALID 080135Z - 080240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W P28 TO
5 NE SLN.
..GOSS..03/08/09
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-007-015-017-031-033-035-041-045-049-059-061-073-077-079-
085-087-095-111-113-115-127-139-151-155-173-177-191-197-207-
080240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MORRIS OSAGE PRATT
RENO SEDGWICK SHAWNEE
SUMNER WABAUNSEE WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 45
VALID 072345Z - 080040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW P28 TO
5 ENE SLN.
..GOSS..03/07/09
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-007-015-017-031-033-035-041-045-049-059-061-073-077-079-
085-087-095-097-111-113-115-127-139-151-155-159-173-177-191-197-
207-080040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN
KIOWA LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MORRIS OSAGE
PRATT RENO RICE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
