Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 47
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ROME GEORGIA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF AUBURN ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL AL...AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WARMING CONTINUE ACROSS ERN AL INTO GA.
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ORGANIZED
LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE
TORNADO RISK IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SPINUP ACROSS GA.
OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
REMNANTS OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM THE W.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 47 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 051935Z - 060200Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NE RMG/ROME GA/ - 15SSE AUO/AUBURN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /39E GQO - 39S LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 35008286 32408387 32408679 35008586
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 47 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 47
VALID 052235Z - 052340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE AUO TO
25 ENE CSG TO 40 NW AHN TO 25 W AND.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 245.
..GRAMS..03/05/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC113-052340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUSSELL
$$
GAC011-013-021-035-053-059-079-133-135-151-157-159-169-171-193-
195-197-207-211-217-219-221-225-237-247-249-263-269-293-297-
052340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS BARROW BIBB
BUTTS CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE
CRAWFORD GREENE GWINNETT
HENRY JACKSON JASPER
JONES LAMAR MACON
MADISON MARION MONROE
MORGAN NEWTON OCONEE
OGLETHORPE PEACH PUTNAM
ROCKDALE SCHLEY TALBOT
TAYLOR UPSON WALTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 47
VALID 052200Z - 052340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW AUO TO
15 NW CSG TO 30 N ATL TO 50 SSE TYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 245
..JEWELL..03/05/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC081-087-113-052340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE MACON RUSSELL
$$
GAC011-013-021-035-053-059-063-077-079-085-089-113-117-121-133-
135-139-145-151-157-159-169-171-187-193-195-197-199-207-211-215-
217-219-221-225-231-237-247-249-255-263-269-281-293-297-311-
052340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS BARROW BIBB
BUTTS CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE
CLAYTON COWETA CRAWFORD
DAWSON DEKALB FAYETTE
FORSYTH FULTON GREENE
GWINNETT HALL HARRIS
HENRY JACKSON JASPER
JONES LAMAR LUMPKIN
MACON MADISON MARION
MERIWETHER MONROE MORGAN
MUSCOGEE NEWTON OCONEE
OGLETHORPE PEACH PIKE
PUTNAM ROCKDALE SCHLEY
SPALDING TALBOT TAYLOR
TOWNS UPSON WALTON
WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 47
VALID 052030Z - 052140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE SEM TO
35 NNW MGM TO 45 SSW ANB TO 15 N ANB TO 25 WSW RMG TO 15 ENE CHA.
..JEWELL..03/05/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-051-081-087-111-113-123-
052140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY
CLEBURNE COOSA ELMORE
LEE MACON RANDOLPH
RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA
$$
GAC011-013-015-021-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-077-079-
085-089-097-111-113-115-117-121-123-129-133-135-139-143-145-149-
151-157-159-169-171-187-193-195-197-199-207-211-213-215-217-219-
221-223-225-227-231-233-237-247-249-255-263-269-281-285-291-293-
295-297-311-313-052140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS BARROW BARTOW
BIBB BUTTS CARROLL
CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA
CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON
COBB COWETA CRAWFORD
DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS
FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD
FORSYTH FULTON GILMER
GORDON GREENE GWINNETT
HALL HARALSON HARRIS
HEARD HENRY JACKSON
JASPER JONES LAMAR
LUMPKIN MACON MADISON
MARION MERIWETHER MONROE
MORGAN MURRAY MUSCOGEE
NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE
PAULDING PEACH PICKENS
PIKE POLK PUTNAM
ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING
TALBOT TAYLOR TOWNS
TROUP UNION UPSON
WALKER WALTON WHITE
WHITFIELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.