Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...BANDS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
STEADILY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH
PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN OK THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS TIED TO INCREASING FORCING
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR UNDER THE INITIAL INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST
STATES UPPER TROUGH. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE OF ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG. EVEN SO...AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 48 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 090205Z - 090900Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50SSE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 50NNW GAG/GAGE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /47SSE LBB - 41E LBL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 33000269 36950137 36959884 33000027
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 48 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 48
VALID 090845Z - 090900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LTS
TO 40 SW AMA.
WW 48 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 090900Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 256.
..PETERS..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-059-129-139-153-090900-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARPER ROGER MILLS
TEXAS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-375-381-393-483-
090900-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 48
VALID 090740Z - 090840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LTS
TO 40 SSW CDS TO 35 WNW LBB.
..PETERS..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-059-129-139-153-090840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-129-153-179-189-191-195-211-233-279-
295-345-357-375-381-393-437-483-090840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LAMB
LIPSCOMB MOTLEY OCHILTREE
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SWISHER WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 48
VALID 090640Z - 090740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LTS
TO 50 S LBB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 255.
..PETERS..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-059-129-139-153-090740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-107-129-153-179-189-191-195-211-219-
233-279-295-303-305-345-357-375-381-393-437-445-483-090740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
CROSBY DONLEY FLOYD
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HOCKLEY
HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 48
VALID 090430Z - 090540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-059-129-139-153-090540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-
195-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-345-357-375-381-393-433-
437-445-483-090540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GARZA
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HOCKLEY
HUTCHINSON KENT KING
LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 48
VALID 090330Z - 090440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-059-129-139-153-090440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-
195-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-345-357-375-381-393-433-
437-445-483-090440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GARZA
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HOCKLEY
HUTCHINSON KENT KING
LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.