Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF JUNCTION TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD/SEWD TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
DRYLINE...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG THE
SWRN END OF THE LINE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN TX WILL
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE COMPOSITE SEWD MOVING LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES THAT FORM TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 50 SEVERE TSTM TX 100145Z - 100800Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
95SW JCT/JUNCTION TX/ - 35ESE TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /13NNW DLF - 47SSE ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 30340088 31759687 30159687 28750088
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 50 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 50
VALID 100745Z - 100800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N SAT TO
25 WNW AUS TO 30 NNE AUS TO 15 ESE TPL TO 25 SE ACT.
WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100800Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 266.
..PETERS..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-029-055-091-145-149-161-187-209-287-293-331-349-453-491-
100800-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BEXAR CALDWELL
COMAL FALLS FAYETTE
FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS
LEE LIMESTONE MILAM
NAVARRO TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 50
VALID 100630Z - 100740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE DRT TO
30 WNW AUS TO 20 WSW ACT.
..PETERS..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-055-091-145-149-161-187-209-217-259-265-
271-287-293-309-325-331-349-385-453-463-491-100740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL
COMAL FALLS FAYETTE
FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS
HILL KENDALL KERR
KINNEY LEE LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MEDINA MILAM
NAVARRO REAL TRAVIS
UVALDE WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 50
VALID 100535Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DRT
TO 50 NNW SAT TO 45 WNW AUS TO 25 WSW ACT.
..ROGERS..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-145-149-161-187-209-217-259-
265-271-287-293-309-325-331-349-385-453-463-491-100640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL FALLS
FAYETTE FREESTONE GUADALUPE
HAYS HILL KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LEE
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MEDINA
MILAM NAVARRO REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 50
VALID 100435Z - 100540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-137-145-149-171-187-209-217-
259-265-271-287-299-309-325-331-385-453-463-491-100540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL EDWARDS
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GUADALUPE HAYS HILL
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LEE LLANO MCLENNAN
MEDINA MILAM REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 50
VALID 100340Z - 100440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-137-145-149-171-187-209-217-
259-265-271-287-299-309-325-331-385-453-463-491-100440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL EDWARDS
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GUADALUPE HAYS HILL
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LEE LLANO MCLENNAN
MEDINA MILAM REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 50
VALID 100240Z - 100340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-137-145-149-171-187-209-217-
259-265-271-287-299-309-325-331-385-453-463-491-100340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL EDWARDS
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GUADALUPE HAYS HILL
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LEE LLANO MCLENNAN
MEDINA MILAM REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.