Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
EXTREME SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MIDDLE AND PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
TUPELO MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR CONVECTION FROM VICINITY TN/KY BORDER
SSWWD TO NRN MS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. EXPECT CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LAYER THAT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH TIME...AND WILL CONTAIN MORE
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND OCNL HAIL ALSO
IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 51 SEVERE TSTM AL KY MS TN 181310Z - 182000Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30S TUP/TUPELO MS/ - 50NNW CSV/CROSSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /25NNW IGB - 52ESE BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 33839016 36618687 36618398 33838737
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 51 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 51
VALID 181935Z - 182000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TUP TO
15 SW TUP TO 5 NW TUP TO 35 NNE TUP TO 40 NNW MSL TO 40 S BNA TO
50 WSW CSV TO 20 WNW CSV TO 45 NNE CSV.
WW 51 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 182000Z.
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC017-057-081-095-117-141-182000-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE
MONROE PRENTISS TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-007-031-035-055-061-099-115-117-129-151-153-175-177-181-
185-182000-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE COFFEE
CUMBERLAND GILES GRUNDY
LAWRENCE MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE
WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 51
VALID 181840Z - 181940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MKL
TO 45 N MSL TO 40 SSW BNA TO 15 ESE BNA TO 30 SSE BWG TO 30 SSE
BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 276
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-093-095-115-117-139-141-145-161-
181940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL MONROE
PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-023-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-069-071-087-099-
109-111-115-117-129-133-137-141-149-151-153-159-169-175-177-181-
185-189-181940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHESTER CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS
GILES GRUNDY HARDEMAN
HARDIN JACKSON LAWRENCE
MCNAIRY MACON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE WHITE WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 51
VALID 181730Z - 181840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-127-
133-181840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
$$
ARC107-181840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-181840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-047-049-051-
055-061-069-071-077-081-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-
127-129-133-135-137-141-147-149-151-153-159-165-169-175-177-181-
185-187-189-181840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON
FAYETTE FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HARDEMAN
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 51
VALID 181635Z - 181740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-127-
133-181740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
$$
ARC107-181740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS
$$
KYC147-199-231-181740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCREARY PULASKI WAYNE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-181740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-047-049-051-
055-061-069-071-077-081-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-
127-129-133-135-137-141-147-149-151-153-159-165-169-175-177-181-
185-187-189-181740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON
FAYETTE FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HARDEMAN
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 51
VALID 181545Z - 181640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-127-
133-181640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
$$
KYC053-057-147-199-207-231-181640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON CUMBERLAND MCCREARY
PULASKI RUSSELL WAYNE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-161-
181640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-021-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051-055-061-
071-077-081-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-129-133-
135-137-141-147-149-151-153-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-
181640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR
DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 51
VALID 181540Z - 181640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-127-
133-181640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
$$
KYC003-053-057-147-171-199-207-231-181640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND
MCCREARY MONROE PULASKI
RUSSELL WAYNE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-161-
181640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-021-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051-055-061-
071-077-081-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-129-133-
135-137-141-147-149-151-153-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-
181640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR
DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 51
VALID 181435Z - 181540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-127-
133-181540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
$$
KYC003-053-057-147-171-199-207-231-181540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND
MCCREARY MONROE PULASKI
RUSSELL WAYNE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-161-
181540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-007-015-021-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051-055-061-
071-077-081-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-129-133-
135-137-141-147-149-151-153-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-
181540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR
DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE MORGAN
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.