Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
CENTRAL OHIO
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY EVENING FROM 625 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD OHIO TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 50...
DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SRN LK MI WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS NRN OH AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS
IN/OH/KY THIS EVENING. A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT/TROUGH TRIPLE POINT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN RESIDUAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND 50-70 KT WSWLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
EARLIER TORNADO THREAT FARTHER W SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH EWD
EXTENT THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES E OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 51 SEVERE TSTM KY OH 082225Z - 090300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW MFD/MANSFIELD OH/ - 45SW LOZ/LONDON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /44W CLE - 36SW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 41348175 36618366 36618565 41348387
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 51 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 51
VALID 090135Z - 090240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BWG
TO 30 N JKL TO 5 SE CLE.
..KERR..03/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-045-053-057-065-109-125-135-137-165-169-171-197-199-203-
205-207-217-090240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CASEY CLINTON
CUMBERLAND ESTILL JACKSON
LAUREL LEWIS LINCOLN
MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE
POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
ROWAN RUSSELL TAYLOR
$$
OHC073-075-103-131-169-090240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOCKING HOLMES MEDINA
PIKE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 51
VALID 090030Z - 090140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE SDF
TO 10 S LEX TO 35 NW CMH TO 20 SE TOL.
..KERR..03/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-011-021-023-045-053-057-065-069-079-087-109-125-135-137-
151-161-165-169-171-173-197-199-201-203-205-207-217-090140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BATH BOYLE
BRACKEN CASEY CLINTON
CUMBERLAND ESTILL FLEMING
GARRARD GREEN JACKSON
LAUREL LEWIS LINCOLN
MADISON MASON MENIFEE
METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY
POWELL PULASKI ROBERTSON
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL
TAYLOR
$$
OHC001-005-015-033-041-043-045-047-049-071-073-075-077-083-089-
093-101-103-117-123-129-131-139-141-143-145-147-169-175-
090140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN
CRAWFORD DELAWARE ERIE
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES
HURON KNOX LICKING
LORAIN MARION MEDINA
MORROW OTTAWA PICKAWAY
PIKE RICHLAND ROSS
SANDUSKY SCIOTO SENECA
WAYNE WYANDOT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 51
VALID 082340Z - 090040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-011-017-021-023-037-045-049-053-057-065-067-069-073-
079-087-097-109-113-125-135-137-151-155-161-165-167-169-171-173-
181-191-197-199-201-203-205-207-209-217-229-239-090040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BATH
BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN
CAMPBELL CASEY CLARK
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN
GARRARD GREEN HARRISON
JACKSON JESSAMINE LAUREL
LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON
MARION MASON MENIFEE
MERCER METCALFE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NICHOLAS PENDLETON
POWELL PULASKI ROBERTSON
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL
SCOTT TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WOODFORD
$$
OHC001-005-015-021-023-025-027-033-041-043-045-047-049-057-063-
065-071-073-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-103-117-123-129-
131-139-141-143-145-147-159-165-169-173-175-090040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN
CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLERMONT
CLINTON CRAWFORD DELAWARE
ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK
HARDIN HIGHLAND HOCKING
HOLMES HURON KNOX
LICKING LOGAN LORAIN
LUCAS MADISON MARION
MEDINA MORROW OTTAWA
PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND
ROSS SANDUSKY SCIOTO
SENECA UNION WARREN
WAYNE WOOD WYANDOT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.