Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1055 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSIFYING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL/SOUTH CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...BUT
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 57 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 231455Z - 232100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW VLD/VALDOSTA GA/ - 30SSE SSI/BRUNSWICK GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /28E TLH - 28NNE CRG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 31378381 31548126 29958126 29798381
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 57 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 57
VALID 232035Z - 232100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 57 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 232100Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 306
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-007-019-023-031-047-089-109-121-125-232100-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON
NASSAU ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-
232100-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS
GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE
WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-232100-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 57
VALID 232000Z - 232140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-007-019-023-031-047-089-109-121-125-232140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON
NASSAU ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-
232140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS
GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE
WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-232140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 57
VALID 231830Z - 231940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-007-019-023-031-047-089-109-121-125-231940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON
NASSAU ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-
231940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS
GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE
WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-231940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 57
VALID 231740Z - 231840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 300
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-007-019-023-031-047-065-067-079-089-109-121-123-125-
231840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON
NASSAU ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127-161-
173-185-229-275-299-305-231840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
COFFEE COLQUITT COOK
ECHOLS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LOWNDES PIERCE
THOMAS WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-231840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 57
VALID 231640Z - 231740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-047-065-067-079-089-121-123-231740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
TAYLOR
$$
GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127-161-
173-185-229-275-299-305-231740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
COFFEE COLQUITT COOK
ECHOLS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LOWNDES PIERCE
THOMAS WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-231740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 57
VALID 231550Z - 231640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..03/23/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-047-065-067-079-089-121-123-231640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
TAYLOR
$$
GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127-161-
173-185-229-275-299-305-231640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
COFFEE COLQUITT COOK
ECHOLS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LOWNDES PIERCE
THOMAS WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-231640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.