Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 64
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRING TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER
PARTS OF THE TX S PLNS...THE TX LOW ROLLING PLNS...AND NW TX AS
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD. SOME STORMS
MAY ARISE WITHIN EXISTING ACCAS/WAA FIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM NM
SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS ARISE ALONG DIFFUSE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH
SEGMENTS NOW EDGING E TOWARD THE LBB AREA. FARTHER NE...OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NW OK.
WHILE WNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 35
KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW. AND...GIVEN EXPECTED CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION...CONSOLIDATION OF STORM COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION
INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/HAIL INTO
TNGT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 64 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 292100Z - 300400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65N CSM/CLINTON OK/ - 50SE BGS/BIG SPRING TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /62W END - 30NW SJT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020.
LAT...LON 36259784 31709962 31700216 36250055
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 64 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 64
VALID 300240Z - 300340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ABI
TO 70 NE BGS TO 45 S LBB TO 50 SE AMA TO 15 NNW FSI TO 5 S END.
..GUYER..03/30/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC017-031-033-047-067-071-073-081-083-085-103-109-119-141-
300340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
GARFIELD JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-045-059-075-077-101-107-125-151-153-155-169-191-197-
207-253-263-269-275-305-345-417-433-441-447-485-487-300340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BRISCOE
CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FISHER FLOYD FOARD
GARZA HALL HARDEMAN
HASKELL JONES KENT
KING KNOX LYNN
MOTLEY SHACKELFORD STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 64
VALID 300145Z - 300240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW SJT TO
50 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 45 NNE BGS TO 50 N BGS TO 40 S LBB TO
35 SW LBB.
..DEAN..03/30/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-055-057-065-071-073-
075-081-083-093-103-109-119-129-141-149-153-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GREER HARMON
JACKSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-033-045-059-075-077-081-087-101-107-125-129-151-153-
155-169-179-191-197-207-211-253-263-269-275-295-305-345-353-357-
393-399-415-417-433-441-447-483-485-487-300240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
BRISCOE CALLAHAN CHILDRESS
CLAY COKE COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FISHER FLOYD
FOARD GARZA GRAY
HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL
HEMPHILL JONES KENT
KING KNOX LIPSCOMB
LYNN MOTLEY NOLAN
OCHILTREE ROBERTS RUNNELS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 64
VALID 300025Z - 300140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 334
..DEAN..03/30/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-065-073-075-081-
083-093-109-119-129-141-149-153-300140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MAJOR OKLAHOMA
PAYNE ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-033-045-059-075-081-087-101-107-115-125-129-151-153-
155-169-173-179-191-197-207-211-227-253-263-269-275-295-305-317-
329-335-345-353-357-393-399-415-417-431-433-441-447-483-485-487-
300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
BRISCOE CALLAHAN CHILDRESS
COKE COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
DONLEY FISHER FLOYD
FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK
GRAY HALL HARDEMAN
HASKELL HEMPHILL HOWARD
JONES KENT KING
KNOX LIPSCOMB LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN OCHILTREE
ROBERTS RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 64
VALID 292330Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..03/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-065-073-075-081-
083-093-109-119-129-141-149-153-300040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MAJOR OKLAHOMA
PAYNE ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-033-045-059-075-081-087-101-107-115-125-129-151-153-
155-169-173-179-191-197-207-211-227-253-263-269-275-295-305-317-
329-335-345-353-357-393-399-415-417-431-433-441-447-483-485-487-
300040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
BRISCOE CALLAHAN CHILDRESS
COKE COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
DONLEY FISHER FLOYD
FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK
GRAY HALL HARDEMAN
HASKELL HEMPHILL HOWARD
JONES KENT KING
KNOX LIPSCOMB LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN OCHILTREE
ROBERTS RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 64
VALID 292235Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..03/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-065-073-075-093-
129-141-149-153-292340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KINGFISHER KIOWA MAJOR
ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA
WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-033-045-059-075-081-087-101-107-115-125-129-151-153-
155-169-173-179-191-197-207-211-227-253-263-269-275-295-305-317-
329-335-345-353-357-393-399-415-417-431-433-441-447-483-485-487-
292340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
BRISCOE CALLAHAN CHILDRESS
COKE COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
DONLEY FISHER FLOYD
FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK
GRAY HALL HARDEMAN
HASKELL HEMPHILL HOWARD
JONES KENT KING
KNOX LIPSCOMB LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN OCHILTREE
ROBERTS RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.