Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 67
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 66...
DISCUSSION...THREE STRONG TSTMS HAVE FORMED OR STRENGTHENED IN THE
PAST HOUR ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS
AND NOW ARCING FROM SE OK THROUGH NE TX INTO NRN LA. WHILE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE MCS LIKELY IS STILL OCCURRING OVER
THE REGION...SFC HEATING IN UPSTREAM /NE TX/ WARM SECTOR AND
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF COOL MID-LVL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
STORM DEVELOPMENT/FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AMPLE /35 KT/ NWLY DEEP
SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND THE MAIN SVR THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN 25-30 KT 700 MB FLOW AND SIZABLE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT
TO SHEAR. ATTM...HOWEVER...THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/LOW
TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH. NEVERTHELESS... ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE TX/NW LA...WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
UPGRADE THROUGH THE AFTN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 67 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 301925Z - 310300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35NW GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 45ENE ESF/ALEXANDRIA LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /28NW GGG - 52ENE AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
LAT...LON 33689515 32599158 30709158 31799515
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 67 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 67
VALID 302125Z - 302240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..03/30/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC073-091-302240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTE MILLER
$$
LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-041-043-049-059-061-069-
073-079-081-083-085-107-115-119-127-302240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
MSC001-302240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-
449-459-302240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
TITUS UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 67
VALID 302025Z - 302140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..03/30/13
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC073-091-302140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTE MILLER
$$
LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-041-043-049-059-061-069-
073-079-081-083-085-107-115-119-127-302140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
MSC001-302140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-
449-459-302140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
TITUS UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.