Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF
COTULLA TEXAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 68...WW 69...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS JUST SOUTH OF SAT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD...WHILE OTHER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTION ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. ACTIVITY IS ALONG A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING TO THE
SOUTH...ENHANCING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE TO 2000J/KG. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40
KT...INDICATING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 70 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 261755Z - 270000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35S COT/COTULLA TX/ - 5ESE GLS/GALVESTON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /30NNE LRD - 53SE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 28739922 30109466 28519466 27149922
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 70 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 70
VALID 262345Z - 270040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E CRP TO
25 SSW LBX TO 5 ESE GLS.
..BROYLES..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GMZ350-355-270040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 70
VALID 262240Z - 262340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRP
TO 35 SSW PSX TO 35 WNW HOU.
..HURLBUT..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC039-071-167-201-291-321-262340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARRIS LIBERTY MATAGORDA
$$
GMZ250-255-330-335-350-355-262340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 70
VALID 262135Z - 262240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALI
TO 25 E NIR TO 45 NNW VCT.
..HURLBUT..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-039-057-071-157-167-201-239-273-291-321-355-391-469-481-
262240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS BRAZORIA CALHOUN
CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON KLEBERG
LIBERTY MATAGORDA NUECES
REFUGIO VICTORIA WHARTON
$$
GMZ235-250-255-330-335-350-355-262240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O CONNOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 70
VALID 262035Z - 262140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ALI TO
15 SE NIR TO 40 NW VCT.
..SPC..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-039-057-071-157-167-175-201-239-249-273-291-321-355-391-
409-469-481-262140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS BRAZORIA CALHOUN
CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON
GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON
JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIBERTY
MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-335-350-355-262140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O CONNOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.