Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 73
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
ALONG AND S OF W-E BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL TX.
ACTIVITY WILL BE PROMOTED BY STRONG SFC HEATING...BRANCH OF
MOIST/SLY LLJ OVER DEEP S TX...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH
UPR IMPULSE NOW PASSING THE TX BIG BEND. COUPLED WITH DEEP EML AND
MODERATE WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW...INITIAL SETUP MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS AND SUPERCELLS/STORM SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. SHEAR
AND BOUNDARY STRENGTH/ORIENTATION SUGGEST EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS OR TWO...WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS/LEWPS. THESE
MAY...IN TIME...EXTEND THE SVR THREAT /DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO/ SE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO/AUSTIN AREAS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 73 SEVERE TSTM TX 311820Z - 010300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15NE UTS/HUNTSVILLE TX/ - 55WNW DRT/DEL RIO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /34WSW LFK - 55WNW DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31035.
LAT...LON 30029529 28790176 30540176 31759529
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 73 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 73
VALID 010230Z - 010300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DRT
TO 25 SE DRT TO 55 WSW HDO.
WW 73 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010300Z.
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-323-010300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMIT MAVERICK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 73
VALID 010145Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DRT
TO 10 SSW HDO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 360
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-271-323-507-010240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMIT KINNEY MAVERICK
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 73
VALID 010025Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 6R6
TO 45 WNW HDO TO 60 S CLL.
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-029-127-163-177-187-271-323-325-463-465-493-507-010140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEXAR DIMMIT
FRIO GONZALES GUADALUPE
KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA
UVALDE VAL VERDE WILSON
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 73
VALID 312325Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE 6R6
TO 45 WNW HDO TO 35 N HOU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 359
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-015-019-029-055-091-127-137-149-163-177-187-271-323-325-
385-463-465-473-493-507-010040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BEXAR CALDWELL COMAL
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GONZALES GUADALUPE
KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALLER WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 73
VALID 312230Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE 6R6
TO 50 S JCT TO 30 SE UTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 359
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-015-019-021-029-031-041-051-055-091-127-137-149-163-171-
177-185-187-209-259-265-271-287-323-325-339-385-453-463-465-471-
473-477-493-507-312340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COMAL DIMMIT EDWARDS
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS KENDALL KERR
KINNEY LEE MAVERICK
MEDINA MONTGOMERY REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 73
VALID 312130Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE 6R6 TO
30 SW JCT TO 25 NE UTS.
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-015-019-021-029-031-041-051-055-091-127-137-149-163-171-
177-185-187-209-259-265-271-287-323-325-339-385-453-463-465-471-
473-477-493-507-312240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COMAL DIMMIT EDWARDS
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS KENDALL KERR
KINNEY LEE MAVERICK
MEDINA MONTGOMERY REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 73
VALID 312045Z - 312140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 6R6
TO 10 SSW JCT TO 15 NE LFK.
..ROGERS..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-015-019-021-029-031-041-051-053-055-091-105-127-137-149-
163-171-177-185-187-209-259-265-267-271-287-299-313-323-325-339-
385-435-453-463-465-471-473-477-491-493-507-312140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL CROCKETT
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LEE LLANO
MADISON MAVERICK MEDINA
MONTGOMERY REAL SUTTON
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.