Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 73
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES NORTH OF AUBURN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 71. WATCH NUMBER 71 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 145 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 72...
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/NEWD
OVER CENTRAL MS/AL IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD
FROM LA. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ALOFT FROM MS INTO AL WILL SUPPORT
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED CLOSER TO THE GROUND IN MS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AL...WHERE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PENETRATE THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 73 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 220745Z - 221300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50WSW JAN/JACKSON MS/ - 35N AUO/AUBURN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /45SW JAN - 12WNW LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 71..AL LA MS
LAT...LON 32689087 33778543 32478543 31389087
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 73 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 73
VALID 221050Z - 221140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MCB TO
40 WSW MEI TO 15 NE MEI TO 25 SSW TCL TO 10 E BHM.
..BROYLES..02/22/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-017-021-023-027-029-037-047-051-065-081-085-087-091-
101-105-111-117-119-121-123-221140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHAMBERS
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLAY
CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA
$$
MSC023-031-061-065-067-075-153-221140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAUDERDALE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.