Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 73...WW 74...
DISCUSSION...MODEST WNWLY DEEP SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL SUGGEST THAT SW MS/S CNTRL LA SQLN WILL CONTINUE ESE THROUGH
INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW OVER SE LA/SRN MS.
MERGING OF SQLN WITH ISOLD CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF IT MAY SUPPORT
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...AND AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 75 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 312020Z - 010100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55NE GPT/GULFPORT MS/ - 35WNW HUM/HOUMA LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /14N SJI - 43S BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 30098841 28889120 30629120 31828841
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 75 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 75
VALID 312330Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HUM TO
15 SSE ASD TO 35 SSE MEI.
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 75
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC057-075-087-109-010040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
LAFOURCHE PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
TERREBONNE
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-010040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-010040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 75
VALID 312225Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW HUM
TO 5 N ASD TO 5 ENE PIB.
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 75
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-312340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-153-312340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-312340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 75
VALID 312135Z - 312240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..03/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 75
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-312240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-153-312240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-312240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.