Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73...WW 74...WW 75...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SSEWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A
COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD. AMBIENT...INFLOW AIR
MASS IS HOT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP...WNWLY
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 76 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 312315Z - 010600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
10NW LRD/LAREDO TX/ - 20SE NIR/BEEVILLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /14NW LRD - 16N CRP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.
LAT...LON 28509980 29019765 27319723 26799937
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 76 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 76
VALID 010230Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW COT
TO 15 WNW ALI TO 15 ESE CRP.
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC131-249-273-283-355-479-010340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG
LA SALLE NUECES WEBB
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 76
VALID 010145Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N COT TO
20 E NIR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 360
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC025-131-249-273-283-297-311-355-409-479-010240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS
KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN NUECES SAN PATRICIO
WEBB
$$
GMZ230-010240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 76
VALID 010025Z - 010140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC025-131-249-273-283-297-311-355-409-479-010140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS
KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN NUECES SAN PATRICIO
WEBB
$$
GMZ230-010140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.