Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 78
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON APR 1 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING NEAR INTERSECTION OF DIFFUSE S-N DRY
LINE AND W-E BOUNDARY S OF SLOWLY-MOVING TX PANHANDLE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO GROW IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING.
WHILE LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP...AND MID-LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SRN STREAM JET. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR...THIS SETUP
MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/LOCALLY
DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL MCS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 78 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 012035Z - 020200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 85SSE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /47NNW CDS - 56ENE MAF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 35099965 32520031 32520220 35090158
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 78 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 78
VALID 020140Z - 020200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LBB TO
30 ESE CDS.
WW 78 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 020200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 366
..COHEN..04/02/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-101-107-115-125-155-169-263-269-275-303-305-415-433-
020200-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FOARD
GARZA KENT KING
KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN
SCURRY STONEWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 78
VALID 020040Z - 020140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PVW TO
15 WNW CDS TO 25 WSW LTS.
..COHEN..04/02/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-101-107-115-125-153-155-169-263-269-275-303-305-345-415-
433-020140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
FOARD GARZA KENT
KING KNOX LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY SCURRY
STONEWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 78
VALID 012340Z - 020040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S AMA TO
20 WNW LTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 364
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-101-107-115-125-153-155-169-189-191-197-263-269-
275-303-305-345-415-433-437-020040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON
DICKENS FLOYD FOARD
GARZA HALE HALL
HARDEMAN KENT KING
KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 78
VALID 012230Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 364
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC057-012340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARMON
$$
TXC011-033-045-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-153-155-169-189-191-
197-263-269-275-303-305-345-415-433-437-012340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BORDEN BRISCOE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD
GARZA HALE HALL
HARDEMAN KENT KING
KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 78
VALID 012130Z - 012240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/01/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC057-012240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARMON
$$
TXC011-033-045-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-153-155-169-189-191-
197-263-269-275-303-305-345-415-433-437-012240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BORDEN BRISCOE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD FOARD
GARZA HALE HALL
HARDEMAN KENT KING
KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.