Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 185
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 5 MILES EAST OF DEL RIO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SEVERAL PARTS OF WW AREA
THROUGH THIS EVE: /1/ ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AS MID-LVL COOLING ASCENT WITH NRN MEXICO/CHIHUAHUA UPR
IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION OF MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW.../2/ ALONG AND N OF W-E COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY S THROUGH
THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...AND /3/ ALONG WEAK NW/SE WARM
FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN HILL COUNTRY INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN.
MODERATE /25-35 KT/ WLY DEEP SHEAR AND SUSTAINED...SEASONABLY MOIST
LOW-LVL INFLOW SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR
TWO SIZABLE MCSS BY MID EVE. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER THIS AFTN...BOTH IN THE BIG BEND REGION WHERE LOW-LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED UNDER PARTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IN ERN
QUARTER OF WW...INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. ENVIRONMENT AND STORM
CHARACTER IN THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
UPGRADES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 79 SEVERE TSTM TX 021935Z - 030400Z
AXIS..185 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75ENE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/ - 5E DRT/DEL RIO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 160NM E/W /50SSE ABI - 4W DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 31739616 29329776 29320391 31730247
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 79 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 79
VALID 030330Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HDO TO
35 NW HDO TO 15 W BWD TO 25 E BWD TO 30 WSW TPL TO 30 ESE BAZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 378
..COHEN..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-029-031-049-053-091-123-127-163-171-209-255-259-265-
281-285-299-307-319-323-325-333-411-453-463-493-507-030440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BEXAR
BLANCO BROWN BURNET
COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT
FRIO GILLESPIE HAYS
KARNES KENDALL KERR
LAMPASAS LAVACA LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK
MEDINA MILLS SAN SABA
TRAVIS UVALDE WILSON
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 79
VALID 030235Z - 030340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DRT TO
10 SW JCT TO 40 W BWD TO 25 E BWD TO 30 WSW TPL TO 30 ESE BAZ.
..GRAMS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-029-031-049-053-083-091-095-123-127-163-171-209-255-
259-265-267-271-281-285-299-307-319-323-325-327-333-385-411-453-
463-465-493-507-030340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BEXAR
BLANCO BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COMAL CONCHO
DEWITT DIMMIT FRIO
GILLESPIE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LAMPASAS LAVACA
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD
MILLS REAL SAN SABA
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 79
VALID 030130Z - 030240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DRT TO
30 NNE SJT TO 25 E BWD TO 40 W CLL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 375.
..GRAMS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-049-053-055-083-091-095-123-127-137-149-
163-171-177-187-209-255-259-265-267-271-281-285-287-299-307-319-
323-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-435-451-453-463-465-491-493-507-
030240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALDWELL COLEMAN
COMAL CONCHO DEWITT
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LAMPASAS LAVACA
LEE LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MAVERICK MEDINA
MENARD MILLS REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UVALDE VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 79
VALID 030040Z - 030140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W DRT TO
30 NNW SJT TO 25 E BWD TO 40 ENE AUS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 375.
..GRAMS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-049-053-055-081-083-091-095-105-123-127-
137-149-163-171-177-187-209-235-255-259-265-267-271-281-285-287-
299-307-319-323-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-435-451-453-463-465-
491-493-507-030140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALDWELL COKE
COLEMAN COMAL CONCHO
CROCKETT DEWITT DIMMIT
EDWARDS FAYETTE FRIO
GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS IRION KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LAMPASAS LAVACA
LEE LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MAVERICK MEDINA
MENARD MILLS REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UVALDE VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 79
VALID 030040Z - 030140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DRT TO
30 NNW SJT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 375.
..GRAMS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-049-053-055-081-083-091-095-105-123-127-
137-149-163-171-177-187-209-235-255-259-265-267-271-281-285-287-
299-307-319-323-325-327-333-385-399-411-413-435-451-453-463-465-
491-493-507-030140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALDWELL COKE
COLEMAN COMAL CONCHO
CROCKETT DEWITT DIMMIT
EDWARDS FAYETTE FRIO
GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS IRION KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LAMPASAS LAVACA
LEE LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MAVERICK MEDINA
MENARD MILLS REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UVALDE VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 79
VALID 022330Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 6R6 TO
35 SSE BGS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 372.
..GRAMS..04/02/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-049-053-055-081-083-091-095-099-105-123-
137-145-149-171-177-187-209-235-259-265-267-271-281-285-287-299-
307-309-319-325-327-331-333-385-399-411-413-431-435-451-453-463-
465-491-493-030040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALDWELL COKE
COLEMAN COMAL CONCHO
CORYELL CROCKETT DEWITT
EDWARDS FALLS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS IRION KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE
LLANO MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN
MASON MEDINA MENARD
MILAM MILLS REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
STERLING SUTTON TOM GREEN
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 79
VALID 022250Z - 022340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 372
..COHEN..04/02/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-043-049-053-055-081-083-091-095-099-103-
105-123-137-145-149-171-177-187-209-235-259-265-267-271-281-285-
287-299-307-309-319-325-327-331-333-371-383-385-399-411-413-431-
435-443-451-453-461-463-465-491-493-022340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BREWSTER
BROWN BURNET CALDWELL
COKE COLEMAN COMAL
CONCHO CORYELL CRANE
CROCKETT DEWITT EDWARDS
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS
IRION KENDALL KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON
MEDINA MENARD MILAM
MILLS PECOS REAGAN
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 79
VALID 022135Z - 022240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/02/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-027-029-031-043-049-053-055-081-083-091-095-099-103-
105-123-137-145-149-171-177-187-209-235-259-265-267-271-281-285-
287-299-307-309-319-325-327-331-333-371-383-385-399-411-413-431-
435-443-451-453-461-463-465-491-493-022240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BREWSTER
BROWN BURNET CALDWELL
COKE COLEMAN COMAL
CONCHO CORYELL CRANE
CROCKETT DEWITT EDWARDS
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS
IRION KENDALL KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON
MEDINA MENARD MILAM
MILLS PECOS REAGAN
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.