Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANGLETON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW
80...
DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG RETURNING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE LOWER SABINE RIVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
INCREASING ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY WILL ALSO POSE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND...AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS IT SPREADS EAST TO CAMERON
PARISH LA AND ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 28/00Z.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 81 TORNADO LA TX CW 272150Z - 280100Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
85N BPT/PORT ARTHUR TX/ - 30ESE LBX/ANGLETON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /36E LFK - 63SSE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 31189333 28959434 28959566 31189469
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 81 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 81
VALID 272350Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LBX TO
35 NNE HOU TO 35 S LFK TO 20 E LFK.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC023-280040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON
$$
TXC071-167-199-241-245-291-351-361-457-280040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS GALVESTON HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
NEWTON ORANGE TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-430-450-280040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 81
VALID 272235Z - 272340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC023-272340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON
$$
TXC039-071-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-272340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-430-450-272340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.