Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COTULLA TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...WW 80...
DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING QLCS --ANCHORED BY A SUPERCELL ON IT/S SRN
END-- OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE HILL AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TX INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN TX. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SETTLED
SWD TO ALONG A FRIO TO KARNES COUNTY LINE...WILL LIKELY DELIMIT THE
NRN BOUND OF MORE ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL. THE TO SOUTH...THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40-45 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 81 SEVERE TSTM TX 030345Z - 031000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NE COT/COTULLA TX/ - 40ESE LRD/LAREDO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /32S SAT - 31ESE LRD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 29119762 27319805 27319968 29119929
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 81 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 81
VALID 030638Z - 030740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW COT TO
40 ESE COT TO 30 WNW NIR TO 40 SE SAT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 380.
..EDWARDS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC025-131-249-283-297-311-479-030740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS
LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN
WEBB
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 81
VALID 030534Z - 030640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW COT TO
30 NE COT TO 30 SSE SAT.
..EDWARDS..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-131-249-283-297-311-479-030640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE DUVAL
JIM WELLS LA SALLE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN WEBB
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 81
VALID 030430Z - 030540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/03/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-127-131-163-249-283-297-311-479-030540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE DIMMIT
DUVAL FRIO JIM WELLS
LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN
WEBB
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.