Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW
81...
DISCUSSION...POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 MID LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TX/OK AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND LEND SUPPORT TO DEEP SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE MS RIVER. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS PRONOUNCED SUPPORT
FOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION WAS MOIST AND SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT ROBUST TSTM UPDRAFTS IN A REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR
THE DEVELOPING LOW AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN AR. CELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH NEAR THESE FEATURES...AS WELL AS
ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN TX AND SERN OK. SHEAR
AND FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES. STORMS NEAR/EAST THE LOW CENTER...AND
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS AR WILL EXPERIENCE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO VERY LARGE HAIL. LINEAR FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE
EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD WIND
THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 82 TORNADO AR LA TX 272335Z - 280700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15WNW LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 50WSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /16WNW LIT - 47ENE LFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 34799080 31459226 31459550 34799415
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 82 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 82
VALID 280430Z - 280540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W POE TO
20 ENE IER TO 35 WSW MLU TO 35 NE TXK TO 35 SW RUE.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-059-069-
079-085-095-099-103-117-119-125-139-280540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
NEVADA OUACHITA PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
$$
LAC035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-123-127-280540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND UNION WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 82
VALID 280235Z - 280340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK
TO 15 ESE SHV TO 30 SE TXK TO 30 NE TXK TO 10 N DEQ.
..BROYLES..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-085-095-097-099-103-109-113-117-119-125-139-
280340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE POLK PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
$$
LAC013-027-035-049-061-065-067-069-073-081-083-085-111-119-123-
127-280340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 82
VALID 280035Z - 280140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LFK
TO 35 SE TYR TO 15 ENE TYR.
..BROYLES..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-085-091-095-097-099-103-109-113-117-119-125-
133-139-280140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-065-067-069-073-081-083-085-
111-119-123-127-280140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-403-405-419-459-
280140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 82
VALID 272350Z - 280040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-085-091-095-097-099-103-109-113-117-119-125-
133-139-280040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-065-067-069-073-081-083-085-
111-119-123-127-280040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-403-405-419-
459-280040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.