Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS NEAR ICT APPEAR TO BE
EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SW MO.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 83 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 071920Z - 080200Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80W CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 20NNE SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM N/S /31E ICT - 9NNE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 38169694 37999323 36979323 37159694
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 83 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 83
VALID 080040Z - 080140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CNU TO
30 WSW JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 50 SW SZL.
..BROYLES..04/08/13
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC039-057-059-077-085-105-109-167-185-225-229-080140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR DADE DALLAS
GREENE HICKORY LACLEDE
LAWRENCE POLK ST. CLAIR
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 83
VALID 072335Z - 080040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/07/13
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
080040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-039-057-077-085-097-109-167-185-217-080040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CEDAR DADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LAWRENCE POLK ST. CLAIR
VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 83
VALID 072250Z - 072340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/07/13
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
072340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-039-057-077-085-097-109-167-185-217-072340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CEDAR DADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LAWRENCE POLK ST. CLAIR
VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 83
VALID 072140Z - 072240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/07/13
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
072240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-039-057-077-085-097-109-167-185-217-072240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CEDAR DADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LAWRENCE POLK ST. CLAIR
VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.