Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 84
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INTENSE STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS MS DELTA AREA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED IN PART BY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADING THE LARGER SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST AND
OCCASIONALLY EXHIBIT STRONG ROTATION. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
EXIST WITH CELLS INCREASING AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF
GIVEN PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EVIDENT
ON MOB VWP DATA LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 84 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 280310Z - 281000Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30N SEM/SELMA AL/ - 45SE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /48NW MGM - 48S SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 32778559 29938719 29938987 32778836
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 84 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 84
VALID 280840Z - 280940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 312.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-063-065-085-091-
097-099-101-105-119-129-131-280940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GREENE
HALE LOWNDES MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY SUMTER WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-280940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-280940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-655-280940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 84
VALID 280740Z - 280840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-063-065-085-091-
097-099-101-105-119-129-131-280840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GREENE
HALE LOWNDES MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY SUMTER WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-280840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-280840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-655-280840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 84
VALID 280640Z - 280740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-063-065-085-091-
097-099-101-105-119-129-131-280740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GREENE
HALE LOWNDES MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY SUMTER WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-280740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-280740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-655-280740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 84
VALID 280435Z - 280540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-063-065-085-091-
097-099-101-105-119-129-131-280540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GREENE
HALE LOWNDES MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY SUMTER WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-280540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-280540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-655-280540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.