Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF LAMAR COLORADO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES ACROSS ERN
CO IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
FARTHER E INTO W/NW KS WILL BE MONITORED FOR MORE OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AS THE ERN CO STORMS MATURE AND MOVE INTO KS CLOSER TO 23Z
OR SO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 85 SEVERE TSTM CO 082020Z - 090300Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE AKO/AKRON CO/ - 30S LAA/LAMAR CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM E/W /12SE SNY - 34S LAA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
LAT...LON 40970211 37630204 37630331 40970344
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 85 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 85
VALID 090235Z - 090340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ITR
TO 35 NNE LHX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 405
..GARNER..04/09/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-095-115-121-125-090340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-181-090340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN
$$
NEC057-087-090340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 85
VALID 090145Z - 090240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ITR
TO 35 NNE LHX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 405
..GARNER..04/09/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-095-115-121-125-090240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-181-090240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN
$$
NEC057-087-090240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 85
VALID 090020Z - 090140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 403
..GARNER..04/09/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125-090140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC023-181-090140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE SHERMAN
$$
NEC057-090140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 85
VALID 082250Z - 082340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125-082340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC023-181-082340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE SHERMAN
$$
NEC057-082340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 85
VALID 082135Z - 082240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 400
..GARNER..04/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125-082240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.