Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 535
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTH OF HUTCHINSON
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATCH AREA. STORMS WILL BE BEHIND A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 86 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 092235Z - 100600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/ - 45N HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /30SSW SPS - 17SW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 33490002 38709926 38709648 33499743
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 86 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 86
VALID 100535Z - 100600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS
TO 10 W END TO 25 NE PNC.
WW 86 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100600Z. A STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM
OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT NO LONGER
WARRANTS MAINTAINING A WW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 421.
..PETERS..04/10/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-047-049-051-055-057-065-067-071-
073-075-081-083-087-103-109-119-125-137-141-149-100600-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GREER HARMON
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-100600-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 86
VALID 100345Z - 100440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GAG
TO 35 SSW AVK TO 40 ENE AVK TO 15 ESE SLN.
..SPC..04/10/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-017-035-079-115-173-191-100440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHASE COWLEY
HARVEY MARION SEDGWICK
SUMNER
$$
OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055-
057-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-125-129-137-
141-149-100440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GRANT GREER
HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-100440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 86
VALID 100225Z - 100340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 418
..GARNER..04/10/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-015-017-033-035-047-053-077-079-095-097-105-113-115-
145-151-155-159-167-169-173-185-191-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE COMANCHE COWLEY
EDWARDS ELLSWORTH HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION
PAWNEE PRATT RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER
$$
OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-053-
055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-125-
129-137-141-149-151-153-100340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-100340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 86
VALID 100155Z - 100240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..04/10/13
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-015-017-033-035-047-053-077-079-095-097-105-113-115-
145-151-155-159-167-169-173-185-191-100240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE COMANCHE COWLEY
EDWARDS ELLSWORTH HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION
PAWNEE PRATT RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER
$$
OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-053-
055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-125-
129-137-141-149-151-153-100240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.