Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 450 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 85. WATCH NUMBER 85 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 450
AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 86...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE NEAR THE GULF COAST AHEAD
OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF COASTAL
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THREAT EXPANDING NEWD
THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG SLY LLJ SPREADS INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 87 TORNADO AL FL GA MS CW 280950Z - 281700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45W MOB/MOBILE AL/ - 30E MGR/MOULTRIE GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /34W SJI - 49SW AMG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 85..AL FL GA CW
LAT...LON 31628901 32028329 30138329 29738901
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 87 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 87
VALID 281240Z - 281340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GPT TO
55 WNW GZH.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-129-
131-281340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE
COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-079-091-113-123-
129-131-133-281340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA TAYLOR
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-281340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
GMZ630-650-655-730-750-755-281340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 87
VALID 281155Z - 281240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GPT TO
50 SSE MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 315.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-
129-131-281240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-079-091-113-123-
129-131-133-281240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA TAYLOR
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-281240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
MSC039-041-131-281240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE STONE
$$
GMZ630-650-655-730-750-755-281240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.