Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES WEST OF
SELMA ALABAMA TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF AUBURN ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 84. WATCH NUMBER 84 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 455 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87...
DISCUSSION...DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG SHEAR AND DEEP ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE TOWARDS
THE LATE MORNING AND SOME OF THESE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN A TORNADO WATCH AT A LATER TIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 88 SEVERE TSTM AL 280955Z - 281700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
85W SEM/SELMA AL/ - 15NE AUO/AUBURN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /19E MEI - 17S LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
REPLACES WW 84..AL FL MS CW
LAT...LON 33348844 33778525 31758525 31328844
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 88 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 88
VALID 281245Z - 281340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOB TO
55 ESE MEI TO 25 N SEM TO 20 ENE BHM.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-081-085-087-091-
101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-281340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA
DALLAS ELMORE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 88
VALID 281155Z - 281240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-063-065-073-
081-085-087-091-101-105-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
281240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
