Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF FORT
CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...WW 90...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TN/MS...TO
THE SE OF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE APPROACHING SE MO AND S OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MLCAPE INCREASES TO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WARM SECTOR ON THE NOSE OF THE 80 KT MID
LEVEL JET...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 91 TORNADO AL IL KY TN 281920Z - 290200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75N HOP/FORT CAMPBELL KY/ - 30SSE HSV/HUNTSVILLE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /17SE PXV - 38NNE VUZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 37758629 34248544 34248772 37758866
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 91 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 91
VALID 290130Z - 290200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GAD TO
45 ESE BNA TO 30 NE BWG.
WW 91 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290200Z.
..HURLBUT..03/29/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-071-290200-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB JACKSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 91
VALID 290035Z - 290140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GAD
TO 50 NNE HSV TO 25 SE BNA TO 25 NNW BWG TO 35 NNE OWB.
..HURLBUT..03/29/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-071-290140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB JACKSON
$$
KYC003-027-061-085-213-227-290140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE EDMONSON
GRAYSON SIMPSON WARREN
$$
TNC015-031-051-111-159-165-169-189-290140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON COFFEE FRANKLIN
MACON SMITH SUMNER
TROUSDALE WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 91
VALID 282350Z - 290040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BHM TO
25 NNE HSV TO 20 N BNA TO 20 ENE EVV.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-071-089-095-290040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB JACKSON MADISON
MARSHALL
$$
INC147-290040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER
$$
KYC003-027-031-061-085-091-213-227-290040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK
SIMPSON WARREN
$$
TNC003-015-031-051-103-111-127-149-159-165-169-189-290040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
FRANKLIN LINCOLN MACON
MOORE RUTHERFORD SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 91
VALID 282330Z - 290040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BHM
TO 20 WNW BNA TO 15 ESE EVV.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-089-095-103-290040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
INC147-173-290040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER WARRICK
$$
KYC003-027-031-059-061-085-091-141-177-183-213-227-290040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON
HANCOCK LOGAN MUHLENBERG
OHIO SIMPSON WARREN
$$
TNC003-015-031-037-051-103-111-117-127-147-149-159-165-169-187-
189-290040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
DAVIDSON FRANKLIN LINCOLN
MACON MARSHALL MOORE
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 91
VALID 282235Z - 282340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BHM
TO 20 S CKV TO 15 WNW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 321
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-083-089-095-103-282340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN
$$
INC147-163-173-282340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC003-027-031-047-059-061-085-091-101-107-141-149-177-183-213-
219-227-282340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAYSON HANCOCK HENDERSON
HOPKINS LOGAN MCLEAN
MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON
TODD WARREN
$$
TNC003-015-021-031-037-051-055-103-111-117-119-125-127-147-149-
159-165-169-187-189-282340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CHEATHAM
COFFEE DAVIDSON FRANKLIN
GILES LINCOLN MACON
MARSHALL MAURY MONTGOMERY
MOORE ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 91
VALID 282135Z - 282240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-282240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
ILC059-069-151-165-282240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GALLATIN HARDIN POPE
SALINE
$$
KYC003-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-085-091-101-107-139-141-
143-149-157-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-282240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAYSON HANCOCK HENDERSON
HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN
LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL
MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG UNION
WARREN WEBSTER
$$
TNC003-005-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-081-083-085-099-101-103-
111-117-119-125-127-135-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-
282240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CHEATHAM COFFEE DAVIDSON
DICKSON FRANKLIN GILES
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
MACON MARSHALL MAURY
MONTGOMERY MOORE PERRY
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
WAYNE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.