Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 92
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 545
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90...WW
91...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE FORMING ATTM IN NE LA AND SW MS...ALONG LINE
OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF SW AR/NW LA COLD FRONT. REGION APPEARS TO
BEING GLANCED BY ASCENT WITH JET STREAK/AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE
ROUNDING SE QUADRANT OF SRN PLNS UPR TROUGH. RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW PER AREA VWP DATA SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL..HIGH WIND...AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 92 TORNADO AR LA MS 102245Z - 110600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25SW HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 35N GLH/GREENVILLE MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /47E AEX - 47NW SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
LAT...LON 31369262 33979202 33978993 31369058
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 92 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 92
VALID 110530Z - 110600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ESF
TO 35 SW LLQ TO 40 N GLH.
WW 92 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110600Z. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THUS NOT WARRANTING THE NEED FOR
A WATCH IS THIS REGION.
..PETERS..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-110600-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-110600-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-037-043-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-
163-110600-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 92
VALID 110425Z - 110540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-110540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
123-127-110540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-037-043-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-
163-110540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 92
VALID 110325Z - 110440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 436
..GUYER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-110440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
123-127-110440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-037-043-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-
163-110440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 92
VALID 110230Z - 110340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 436
..GUYER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-110340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
123-127-110340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-037-043-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-
163-110340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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