Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 94
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SALEM ILLINOIS TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...WW 90...WW 91...WW
92...WW 93...
DISCUSSION...SSW-NNE SQLN NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL TO E OF PBF
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE AT ABOUT 25 KTS...WHILE STORMS WITHIN THE
LINE MOVE NNE AT 45-50. AREA VWP DATA SHOW A BAND OF ENHANCED SSWLY
850-700 MB FLOW...WITH SPEEDS AOA 60 KTS...DEVELOPING EWD AHEAD OF
SQLN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPR LVL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING WRN AR.
AMPLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
DMGG WIND AND OCCASIONAL QLCS-TYPE TORNADOES FROM EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS/LEWPS. SVR POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN
NRN THIRD OF THE WW LATER TNGT/ERY THU AS NRN PART OF SQLN INTERACTS
WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN QSTNRY NEAR I-70 IN IL/SW IND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 94 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 110130Z - 110800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNE SLO/SALEM IL/ - 55WSW UOX/OXFORD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /31SSE AXC - 37N SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 39248715 34068901 34069181 39249013
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 94 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 94
VALID 110730Z - 110800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GWO TO
40 S PAH TO 35 WSW HOP.
WW 94 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110800Z. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SSW-NNE BAND OF TSTMS IN WRN TN TO
NWRN MS WILL FAVOR SOME LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH 40-50 KT SLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL
WEAK INSTABILITY/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
..PETERS..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC009-071-093-107-135-137-161-110800-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON LAFAYETTE MARSHALL
PANOLA TALLAHATCHIE TATE
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC017-023-033-047-053-069-075-077-079-113-183-110800-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
MADISON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 94
VALID 110630Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GLH
TO 25 ENE CGI TO 30 ESE MDH TO 20 SW MTO.
..PETERS..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-025-033-035-047-049-059-065-069-079-087-101-127-151-153-
159-165-185-191-193-110740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JASPER JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
RICHLAND SALINE WABASH
WAYNE WHITE
$$
INC027-051-055-083-125-129-153-163-173-110740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON GREENE
KNOX PIKE POSEY
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
110740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MSC009-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-110740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON DESOTO LAFAYETTE
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC133-110740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-157-
167-183-110740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 94
VALID 110545Z - 110640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE GLH
TO 20 SW MTO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 438.
..MARSH..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-023-025-033-035-047-049-055-059-065-069-079-081-087-101-
127-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-110640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
RICHLAND SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC027-051-055-083-125-129-153-163-173-110640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON GREENE
KNOX PIKE POSEY
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
110640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MSC009-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-110640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON DESOTO LAFAYETTE
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC133-110640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-157-
167-183-110640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 94
VALID 110425Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE GLH
TO 10 ENE CGI TO 20 SW MTO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 438
..GUYER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC107-110540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS
$$
ILC003-023-025-033-035-047-049-055-059-065-069-079-081-087-101-
127-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-110540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
RICHLAND SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC027-051-055-083-125-129-153-163-173-110540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON GREENE
KNOX PIKE POSEY
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
110540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MSC009-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-110540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC133-201-110540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SCOTT
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-157-
167-183-110540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 94
VALID 110325Z - 110440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
20 SW CGI TO 35 NE ALN.
..GUYER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-110440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
ST. FRANCIS
$$
ILC003-005-021-023-025-027-033-035-047-049-051-055-059-065-069-
077-079-081-087-101-121-127-135-145-151-153-157-159-165-173-181-
185-189-191-193-199-110440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION
MASSAC MONTGOMERY PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY
UNION WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC027-051-055-083-125-129-153-163-173-110440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON GREENE
KNOX PIKE POSEY
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-225-233-
110440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER
$$
MSC009-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-110440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC017-031-069-133-143-155-157-201-207-110440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER CAPE GIRARDEAU DUNKLIN
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PEMISCOT
PERRY SCOTT STODDARD
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-157-
167-183-110440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.