Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 95
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL NOON CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DOTHAN ALABAMA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 93. WATCH NUMBER 93 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 320
AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 94...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
AR UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD...WHILE EMBEDDED
STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNE WITHIN IT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS
INCREASED APPRECIABLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE ERN GULF CST.
SFC OBSERVATIONS/VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N INTO SE AL AND SW GA AHEAD OF SQLN LATER THIS MORNING...TO
A DEGREE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN
CONFLUENCE LINE AHEAD OF SQLN...OVER CNTRL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SE AL. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC
FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
NARROW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 95 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 040920Z - 041800Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW DHN/DOTHAN AL/ - 55SW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /38SE MGM - 73SSE CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.
REPLACES WW 93..AL FL MS CW
LAT...LON 31848383 29638450 29638816 31848758
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 95 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 95
VALID 041720Z - 041800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN
TO 45 S CSG.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 95 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
04/18Z. HOWEVER...A NEW WW COULD STILL BECOME NECESSARY FARTHER
EAST...INTO GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS...LATER THIS AFTN.
..KERR..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-041800-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JACKSON
LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041800-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ730-750-755-041800-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 95
VALID 041630Z - 041740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO
40 NNE DHN.
..KERR..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-133-041740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ730-750-755-041740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 95
VALID 041540Z - 041640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO
40 NNE DHN.
..KERR..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-133-041640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ730-750-755-041640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 95
VALID 041330Z - 041440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE PNS
TO 5 E TOI.
..GUYER..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-041440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-133-041440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ730-750-755-041440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 95
VALID 041225Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S PNS TO
25 W TOI.
..GUYER..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC013-031-039-041-045-061-067-069-041340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER COFFEE COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-091-129-131-133-041340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
OKALOOSA WAKULLA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ655-730-750-755-041340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 95
VALID 041030Z - 041140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..03/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-041140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER COFFEE
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MONROE
$$
FLC005-013-033-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-091-113-129-131-133-
041140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON LEON
LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
041140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ630-650-655-730-750-755-041140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.