Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 95
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CU/TCU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND WEST-CENTRAL OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 95 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 302220Z - 310500Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NW CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 35SSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /69ENE ICT - 24S ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 38339512 33819612 33819838 38339752
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 95 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 95
VALID 310310Z - 310440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS
TO 35 N ADM TO 35 E CQB TO 10 NE TUL TO 35 ENE BVO.
..SPC..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-035-063-069-085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-
111-121-123-131-133-143-145-310440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL CRAIG HUGHES
JOHNSTON LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 95
VALID 310200Z - 310340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FSI
TO 25 WSW CQB TO 25 N CQB TO 25 NNW BVO TO 25 E EMP.
..SPC..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-099-125-133-205-207-310340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC005-013-019-027-029-035-037-049-051-063-067-069-081-085-087-
091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-113-117-121-123-125-131-133-137-
143-145-147-310340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL CRAIG
CREEK GARVIN GRADY
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES
MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 95
VALID 310055Z - 310140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW CHK
TO 5 SSE PNC TO 40 NNE PNC TO 15 W EMP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 337
..SPC..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-019-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-310140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA ELK
GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC005-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-049-051-063-067-069-081-083-
085-087-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-
125-131-133-137-143-145-147-310140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
CRAIG CREEK GARVIN
GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.