Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...
DISCUSSION...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
INTO MIDDLE TN. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE WITH A LOCALLY ENHANCED
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 23040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 97 SEVERE TSTM TN 111735Z - 120000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW CSV/CROSSVILLE TN/ - 80S BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /52ESE BWG - 43ENE MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 36618443 34978570 34978765 36618641
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 97 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 97
VALID 112040Z - 112140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSL TO
25 SSE BWG.
..MOSIER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-087-111-117-133-137-141-
149-159-169-175-177-185-189-112140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB
FENTRESS GILES GRUNDY
JACKSON MACON MARSHALL
OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM
RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 97
VALID 111830Z - 111940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..04/11/13
ATTN...WFO...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-087-099-111-117-133-137-
141-149-159-169-175-177-185-189-111940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB
FENTRESS GILES GRUNDY
JACKSON LAWRENCE MACON
MARSHALL OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH
TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN
WHITE WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.