Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LA WILL LIKELY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS LA/SRN MS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 97 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 311435Z - 312200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE JAN/JACKSON MS/ - 15S 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /23NE JAN - 62SE LCH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 32778820 29549055 29549370 32779148
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 97 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 97
VALID 312025Z - 312140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH TO
10 NW MCB TO 25 NE PIB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 349
..SMITH..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-033-037-045-047-051-055-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-
091-093-095-099-101-103-105-109-113-117-121-312140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE VERMILION
WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
$$
MSC005-035-067-073-091-109-113-147-312140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE FORREST JONES
LAMAR MARION PEARL RIVER
PIKE WALTHALL
$$
GMZ430-435-452-455-530-312140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 97
VALID 311920Z - 312040Z
..SMITH..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-005-007-023-033-037-039-045-047-051-053-055-057-063-071-
075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-117-121-
125-312040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION
CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE VERMILION WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-109-113-129-
147-157-312040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION
PEARL RIVER PIKE SMITH
WALTHALL WILKINSON
$$
GMZ430-432-435-452-455-530-312040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 97
VALID 311740Z - 311840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW ESF TO
30 NE ESF TO 35 N HEZ TO 50 WNW JAN TO 45 NW JAN.
..MEAD..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-025-029-033-037-039-045-047-
051-053-055-057-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-121-125-311840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-
075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-
157-163-311840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
NESHOBA NEWTON PEARL RIVER
PIKE RANKIN SCOTT
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WARREN WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
GMZ430-432-435-452-455-530-311840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 97
VALID 311640Z - 311740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ESF TO
25 NE ESF TO 25 NNW HEZ TO 55 NNE HEZ TO 45 SW GWO.
..MEAD..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-025-029-033-037-039-045-047-
051-053-055-057-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-121-125-311740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-
075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-
157-163-311740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
NESHOBA NEWTON PEARL RIVER
PIKE RANKIN SCOTT
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WARREN WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
GMZ430-432-435-452-455-530-311740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 97
VALID 311530Z - 311640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-023-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-
045-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-121-125-311640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON MADISON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
VERMILION VERNON WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-055-061-063-065-067-069-
073-075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-
147-149-157-163-311640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS
ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON
MARION NESHOBA NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WALTHALL WARREN
WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
GMZ430-432-435-452-455-530-311640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.