Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 98
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 185
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOTHAN ALABAMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...
DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EXPAND EWD ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL INTO SW GA/FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEED OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE
SW WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE NEAR THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 98 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA MS CW 311800Z - 010000Z
AXIS..185 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NW DHN/DOTHAN AL/ - 60S PNS/PENSACOLA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 160NM E/W /44SE MGM - 78SSW CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 31598266 29568409 29569026 31598894
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 98 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 98
VALID 312305Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BVE
TO 10 W MOB TO 10 N CEW TO 30 N PFN TO 40 N TLH TO 45 NNE MGR.
..SPC..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-010040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN
$$
FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-091-113-123-
129-131-133-010040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA TAYLOR
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC019-027-071-075-087-131-173-185-275-277-010040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT
COOK DECATUR GRADY
LANIER LOWNDES THOMAS
TIFT
$$
GMZ630-650-655-730-750-755-765-010040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 98
VALID 312155Z - 312240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY CONCERNING THIS
WATCH.
..SPC..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-
129-131-312240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-312240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-312240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-312240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ550-555-630-650-655-730-750-755-765-312240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 98
VALID 312030Z - 312140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 350
..SMITH..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-
129-131-312140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-312140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-312140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-312140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ550-555-630-650-655-730-750-755-765-312140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 98
VALID 311920Z - 312040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..03/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-
129-131-312040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW
CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-312040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-312040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-312040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ550-555-630-650-655-730-750-755-765-312040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.