Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 99
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 715 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...N-S BAND OF TSTMS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY A
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND
MOB VAD DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AND
RESULTING SHEAR/ THAN NUMERICAL FORECASTS. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 99 TORNADO MS CW 221215Z - 221700Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW MOB/MOBILE AL/ - 40SSE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM E/W /24NW SJI - 57SSW SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.
LAT...LON 31048808 29868823 29868940 31048926
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 99 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 99
VALID 221625Z - 221700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE GPT TO
25 NNW MOB.
WW 99 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 221700Z.
..GRAMS..03/22/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GMZ557-221700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 99
VALID 221535Z - 221640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GPT
TO 30 NW MOB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 326.
..GRAMS..03/22/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC039-059-221640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE JACKSON
$$
GMZ557-221640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 99
VALID 221435Z - 221540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..03/22/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC039-047-059-131-221540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HARRISON JACKSON
STONE
$$
GMZ532-536-538-557-221540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 99
VALID 221335Z - 221440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..03/22/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC039-047-059-131-221440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HARRISON JACKSON
STONE
$$
GMZ532-536-538-557-221440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.