Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING
THE WATCH AREA. THE AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 99 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 312125Z - 010400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW VLD/VALDOSTA GA/ - 5SE SSI/BRUNSWICK GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /55WSW AMG - 46N CRG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 31848341 31888138 30298138 30258341
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 99 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 99
VALID 010300Z - 010440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW GNV
TO 40 W JAX TO 35 SE AYS TO 20 N SSI.
..SPC..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-041-089-125-010440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST NASSAU UNION
$$
GAC039-127-010440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN GLYNN
$$
AMZ450-452-010440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 99
VALID 010200Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE VLD
TO 35 S AYS TO 25 SE AYS TO 20 SW SAV.
..SPC..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-041-047-089-121-125-010340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC025-039-049-101-127-229-305-010340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE
WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-010340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 99
VALID 010100Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW VLD
TO 15 SE AYS TO 30 SE VDI.
..SPC..04/01/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-041-047-089-121-125-010240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC025-039-049-101-127-229-305-010240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE
WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-010240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.