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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 440 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 101...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHIFT
QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH THE MORNING. STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE/MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 102 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 020940Z - 021700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30SSW POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 10N TXK/TEXARKANA AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /33NNW LCH - 6NE TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 30639480 33599548 33599251 30639194
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 102 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 102
VALID 021530Z - 021640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW POE
TO 30 ESE ELD.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-021640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC011-021-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-111-115-127-021640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
UNION VERNON WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 102
VALID 021430Z - 021540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW POE TO
30 NE ELD.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-021540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC011-021-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-111-115-127-021540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
UNION VERNON WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 102
VALID 021330Z - 021440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE UTS
TO 30 S SHV TO 35 ENE TXK.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-099-139-021440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC011-013-015-021-027-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-111-
115-119-127-021440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC241-351-403-405-457-021440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 102
VALID 021240Z - 021340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LFK
TO 35 NE LFK TO 15 W SHV TO 10 NNW TXK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 364.
..PETERS..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-021340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
MILLER NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC011-013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-
085-111-115-119-127-021340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE UNION VERNON
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-241-347-351-365-403-405-419-457-021340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA JASPER NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 102
VALID 021150Z - 021240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW LFK
TO 10 W GGG TO 30 E PRX.
..PETERS..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-021240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
MILLER NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC011-013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-
085-111-115-119-127-021240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE UNION VERNON
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-037-067-183-203-241-315-343-347-351-365-401-403-405-419-
457-459-021240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CASS
GREGG HARRISON JASPER
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
TYLER UPSHUR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 102
VALID 021040Z - 021140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-021140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
MILLER NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC011-013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-
085-111-115-119-127-021140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE UNION VERNON
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-241-315-343-347-351-365-401-
403-405-419-423-449-457-459-499-021140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON JASPER
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH TITUS TYLER
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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