Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 40 MILES EAST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104...
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE IN LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
LA/MS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OVER N TX/SRN OK. 12Z
SOUNDINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION REVEALED AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP LAYER
AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN THE LINE...WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN THE LINE AND PERHAPS E OF THE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 105 TORNADO AR LA MS 021425Z - 022200Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 40E BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /12N SQS - 34NNW MSY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 33638852 30528880 30529216 33639200
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 105 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 105
VALID 022050Z - 022140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MOB
TO 15 SE ESF.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-022140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-022140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049-051-
053-055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-
097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-149-151-155-159-163-
022140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 105
VALID 021930Z - 022040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GPT
TO 20 E MCB TO 15 SE ESF.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-022040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-051-065-067-071-083-087-107-123-022040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON MADISON
MOREHOUSE ORLEANS RICHLAND
ST. BERNARD TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-047-049-
051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-
089-091-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-149-151-155-
159-163-022040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HARRISON HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEFLORE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MADISON MARION
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
GMZ555-022040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GMZ555
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 105
VALID 021835Z - 021940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-051-057-065-067-071-083-087-089-095-103-105-
107-109-117-123-021940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
MADISON MOREHOUSE ORLEANS
RICHLAND ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-
087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-133-
147-149-151-155-159-163-021940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HANCOCK HARRISON
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH SUNFLOWER WALTHALL
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
GMZ530-555-021940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GMZ530
GMZ555
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 105
VALID 021730Z - 021840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC005-007-025-029-033-035-037-041-047-051-057-063-065-067-071-
077-083-087-089-091-093-095-103-105-107-109-117-121-123-125-
021840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL
EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
MADISON MOREHOUSE ORLEANS
POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-045-
047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-
085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-
133-147-149-151-155-157-159-163-021840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GRENADA HANCOCK
HARRISON HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LEFLORE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
GMZ530-555-021840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GMZ530
GMZ555
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 105
VALID 021655Z - 021740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC005-007-025-029-033-035-037-041-047-051-057-063-065-067-071-
077-083-087-089-091-093-095-103-105-107-109-117-121-123-125-
021740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL
EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
MADISON MOREHOUSE ORLEANS
POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-045-
047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-
085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-
133-147-149-151-155-157-159-163-021740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GRENADA HANCOCK
HARRISON HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LEFLORE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
GMZ530-555-021740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GMZ530
GMZ555
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 105
VALID 021530Z - 021640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC005-025-029-033-035-037-041-047-063-065-067-077-083-091-103-
105-107-117-121-123-125-021640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
FRANKLIN IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON
MADISON MOREHOUSE POINTE COUPEE
RICHLAND ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049-
051-053-055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-
091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-133-147-149-
151-155-157-159-163-021640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LEFLORE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.