Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING OR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND
ROTATION DEVELOPING IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK
FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 106 TORNADO FL GA CW 141755Z - 150200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60WNW JAX/JACKSONVILLE FL/ - 50WSW MLB/MELBOURNE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43S AMG - 43S ORL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
LAT...LON 30828159 27818040 27818237 30828362
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 106 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 106
VALID 142355Z - 150040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE AGR TO
15 NW OCF TO 30 ENE VLD TO 15 NE JAX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 474
..SMITH..04/14/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-009-019-023-031-035-041-047-069-083-089-095-097-
107-109-117-125-127-150040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CLAY COLUMBIA
DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST
HAMILTON LAKE MARION
NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
UNION VOLUSIA
$$
GAC065-101-150040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINCH ECHOLS
$$
AMZ452-454-550-552-150040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
02016
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 106
VALID 142150Z - 142240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/14/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-127-142240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
GAC039-049-065-101-299-142240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-550-552-GMZ850-142240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
02016
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 106
VALID 142040Z - 142140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 472
..DIAL..04/14/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-127-142140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
GAC039-049-065-101-299-142140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-550-552-GMZ850-142140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
02016
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.