Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 110 SEVERE TSTM IL 160500Z - 161200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50WNW STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/ - 20ENE DEC/DECATUR IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /36WNW STL - 20NE AXC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 39819123 40748851 39138851 38229123
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 110 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 110
VALID 160635Z - 160740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/16/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-009-013-017-021-039-049-051-061-083-107-113-115-117-119-
125-129-135-137-139-147-149-167-171-173-160740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND BROWN CALHOUN
CASS CHRISTIAN DE WITT
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE
JERSEY LOGAN MCLEAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY
MORGAN MOULTRIE PIATT
PIKE SANGAMON SCOTT
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.