Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 105. WATCH NUMBER 105 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 355 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 107...WW 108...WW 109...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL ARC OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
LITTLE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE MOVES EWD FROM
CENTRAL AR TOWARD NW MS THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE
HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE...WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THREAT
FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE ARC OF STORMS...GIVEN SOME RESPONSE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PRESSURE FALLS...AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL JET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 110 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 022055Z - 030200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 60SSW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /48NE LIT - 19NW JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 105..AR LA MS
LAT...LON 35279048 32688944 32689151 35279259
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 110 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 110
VALID 022245Z - 022340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S GLH TO
25 SE GLH TO 20 NW GWO TO 40 NNW GWO TO 55 NNE GLH TO 45 ENE PBF
TO 5 ENE LIT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 376
..JEWELL..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC037-077-085-095-107-117-123-145-147-022340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROSS LEE LONOKE
MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
ST. FRANCIS WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC007-015-027-043-051-053-083-097-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
161-163-022340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL COAHOMA
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 110
VALID 022200Z - 022340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S GLH TO
10 SSW GLH TO 30 NNW GLH TO 20 E PBF TO 20 W PBF.
..JEWELL..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-037-041-069-077-085-095-107-117-123-145-147-022340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CROSS DESHA
JEFFERSON LEE LONOKE
MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
ST. FRANCIS WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC007-011-015-027-043-051-053-083-097-107-119-125-133-135-137-
143-151-161-163-022340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA GRENADA HOLMES
HUMPHREYS LEFLORE MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.