Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...WW
110...WW 111...WW 112...
DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FORMING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
EJECTING UPR VORT MAX EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS REGION FURTHER
DESTABILIZES WITH STRONG ASCENT/MID LVL COLD ADVECTION. WHILE WIND
PROFILES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 113 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 022320Z - 030500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 50W CBM/COLUMBUS MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /40NE DYR - 41WNW IGB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
LAT...LON 36508741 33618801 33619062 36509011
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 113 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 113
VALID 030155Z - 030240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSL
TO 45 WNW MSL TO 15 NW MKL TO 35 S PAH.
..JEWELL..04/03/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC141-030240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC017-023-039-053-071-077-079-109-113-183-030240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER DECATUR
GIBSON HARDIN HENDERSON
HENRY MCNAIRY MADISON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 113
VALID 022345Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E GWO TO
30 S UOX TO 15 WNW UOX TO 25 SSW MEM TO 30 WSW MEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 376
..JEWELL..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-093-030040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN MISSISSIPPI
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-033-057-071-081-093-095-115-117-139-141-145-
030040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW DESOTO ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
$$
MOC155-030040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-079-095-097-109-
113-131-157-167-183-030040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
LAKE LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
