Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 108. WATCH NUMBER 108 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
945 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 111...WW 112...WW 113...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG NE/SW
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEX. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ENE ALONG STALLING OR SLIGHTLY NWD-DRIFTING W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER NRN FL. STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LVL SHEAR AND RICH MOISTURE
SUPPLY SUGGEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO ISOLD
DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL... THROUGH EARLY FRI.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 114 TORNADO FL GA CW 030145Z - 030900Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
35NNE SGJ/ST AUGUSTINE FL/ - 45SW CTY/CROSS CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /22ENE CRG - 40SW CTY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 108..AL FL GA CW
LAT...LON 29458055 28198308 30138418 31408166
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 114 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 114
VALID 030635Z - 030740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE VLD TO
25 WNW JAX TO 35 ENE JAX.
..BROYLES..04/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-079-
083-089-101-107-109-119-121-123-125-030740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA
DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PASCO
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
AMZ452-454-GMZ730-765-850-030740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 114
VALID 030535Z - 030640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-079-
083-089-101-107-109-119-121-123-125-030640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA
DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PASCO
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC039-049-065-101-127-299-030640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS GLYNN WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ730-765-850-030640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 114
VALID 030430Z - 030540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 381
..GUYER..04/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-079-
083-089-101-107-109-119-121-123-125-030540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA
DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PASCO
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC039-049-065-101-127-299-030540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS GLYNN WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ730-765-850-030540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 114
VALID 030330Z - 030440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-079-
083-089-101-107-109-119-121-123-125-030440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA
DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PASCO
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC039-049-065-101-127-299-030440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS GLYNN WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ730-765-850-030440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.