Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 20 MILES EAST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 115 SEVERE TSTM IL KY NC TN 171740Z - 180200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NW BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/ - 20E CHA/CHATTANOOGA TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /43SE PXV - 15ENE GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 37478561 35028343 35028626 37478851
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 115 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 115
VALID 172225Z - 172340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S BNA TO
50 WSW AVL.
..COHEN..04/17/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 115
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC039-043-172340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY
$$
TNC011-061-065-115-139-153-172340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY GRUNDY HAMILTON
MARION POLK SEQUATCHIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 115
VALID 172145Z - 172240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BWG
TO 35 SE BWG TO 5 SSW TYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 498
..COHEN..04/17/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 115
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC069-151-172240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN POPE
$$
KYC003-027-031-033-047-055-059-061-085-091-093-101-107-139-141-
143-149-163-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-172240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
CALDWELL CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON
HANCOCK HARDIN HENDERSON
HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN
LYON MCLEAN MEADE
MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG UNION
WARREN WEBSTER
$$
NCC039-043-172240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY
$$
TNC003-007-011-015-021-031-035-037-041-043-061-065-087-107-111-
115-121-123-125-133-139-141-143-147-149-153-159-161-165-169-175-
177-185-187-189-172240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE BRADLEY
CANNON CHEATHAM COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB
DICKSON GRUNDY HAMILTON
JACKSON MCMINN MACON
MARION MEIGS MONROE
MONTGOMERY OVERTON POLK
PUTNAM RHEA ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SEQUATCHIE SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 115
VALID 171940Z - 172040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..04/17/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 115
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC069-151-172040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN POPE
$$
KYC003-009-027-031-033-047-053-055-057-059-061-085-087-091-093-
099-101-107-123-139-141-143-149-163-169-171-177-183-213-219-221-
225-227-233-172040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE
BUTLER CALDWELL CHRISTIAN
CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND
DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON
GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN
HART HENDERSON HOPKINS
LARUE LIVINGSTON LOGAN
LYON MCLEAN MEADE
METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG
OHIO SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG UNION WARREN
WEBSTER
$$
NCC039-043-172040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY
$$
TNC001-003-007-009-011-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-061-
065-087-093-105-107-111-115-121-123-125-129-133-137-139-141-143-
145-147-149-151-153-159-161-165-169-175-177-185-187-189-
172040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BLOUNT BRADLEY CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB
DICKSON FENTRESS GRUNDY
HAMILTON JACKSON KNOX
LOUDON MCMINN MACON
MARION MEIGS MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 115
VALID 171840Z - 171940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..04/17/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 115
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC069-151-171940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN POPE
$$
KYC001-003-009-027-031-033-047-053-055-057-059-061-085-087-091-
093-099-101-107-123-139-141-143-149-163-169-171-177-183-207-213-
217-219-221-225-227-233-171940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL
CHRISTIAN CLINTON CRITTENDEN
CUMBERLAND DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HART HENDERSON
HOPKINS LARUE LIVINGSTON
LOGAN LYON MCLEAN
MEADE METCALFE MONROE
MUHLENBERG OHIO RUSSELL
SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD
TRIGG UNION WARREN
WEBSTER
$$
NCC039-043-171940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY
$$
TNC001-003-007-009-011-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-061-
065-087-093-105-107-111-115-121-123-125-129-133-137-139-141-143-
145-147-149-151-153-159-161-165-169-175-177-185-187-189-
171940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BLOUNT BRADLEY CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB
DICKSON FENTRESS GRUNDY
HAMILTON JACKSON KNOX
LOUDON MCMINN MACON
MARION MEIGS MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.